As news broke Thursday night that Kyler Murray was officially signing with the Minnesota Vikings, an NFC executive predicted: “He’s going to absolutely ball out.”
Optimism raced across the league mere minutes after Murray tweeted “Skol” and the Vikings celebrated the 2019 first overall draft pick costing just $1.3 million for a year while the Arizona Cardinals pay the rest of his $36.8 million salary.
Advertisement
The executive’s glass-half-full approach was not an unpopular, or even unusual, sentiment in recent days and weeks as the march toward a Murray-Minnesota marriage looked increasingly inevitable.
An über-talented quarterback is teaming up with a play-caller who has elevated multiple quarterbacks beyond the performance of their prior stops. Why not believe?
“That system has gotten more out of guys with less talent, so when they get guys with elite traits, it shows up,” an AFC executive told Yahoo Sports, pointing to Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford’s recent successes.
The question arose: What will the Vikings’ offense look like with Murray at the helm?
Kyler Murray is taking his athleticism to Minnesota where he’ll compete for the QB1 job. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
(Christian Petersen via Getty Images)
In seven seasons with the Vikings, Murray completed 67.1% of his passes for 20,460 yards, 121 touchdowns and 60 interceptions. He also rushed for 3,193 yards and 32 touchdowns — top-four numbers among quarterbacks since 2019. The biggest knock against Murray’s on-field performance was his 44.3% win percentage. Add in questions about his study habits and commitment to the game, and narratives took off.
Advertisement
Consider Murray alongside Vikings head coach and play-caller Kevin O’Connell’s track record is where the last number gets interesting.
In aggregate, O’Connell’s four seasons in Minnesota have been up and down. Twice he’s won 13+ games, with quarterback Kirk Cousins in 2022 and Sam Darnold in 2024. The Vikings ranked top-10 in scoring each of those years.
In 2023 and 2025, the Vikings’ offense dwelled in the cellar. And yet: In neither of those seasons did the Vikings front the same quarterback for more than 10 games.
While the cause-and-effect relationship could be questioned here, it’s worth noting that in the two seasons in which O’Connell had a healthy starter through 17 games, he coordinated top-10 offenses that won 13 and 14 games, respectively.
Advertisement
As long as Murray stays healthy, the NFL is eager to see what the duo cooks up.
“I think he could look like shades of Jordan Love,” the NFC executive said. “He can swing that. He could throw that ball now. So I could see kind of like that level of production and maybe also that level of error.”
In his Thursday introductory news conference, Murray wasn’t looking to contain the ceiling of his partnership with O’Connell.
[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]
“I don’t want to put any limitation on what that looks like,” Murray said. “Again, I know he’s had a tremendous amount of success with multiple different quarterbacks. I know what my skillset brings to the game. I know what I’m capable of. And I think that, again, like I said, I’m ready to come in and compete.
Advertisement
“I can’t wait to be under his tutelage.”
It’s fair to ask how well Murray fits the Shanahan-McVay system that O’Connell runs. Coaches and executives alike are intrigued to see how O’Connell molds scheme to Murray’s strengths. An NFC executive said they thought Murray could succeed in the over-the-middle throws O’Connell wants because of how the Vikings sets throws up with play action and off of wide-zone schemes to open windows.
An offensive assistant from a different NFC team felt that some seasons in Arizona, Murray ran an offense similar to the principles O’Connell features — and “was just OK.” The NFC assistant nonetheless felt that Murray was a significant upgrade from J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings’ weapons will offer Murray a better surrounding cast than he’s coming from. The assistant predicted that O’Connell would be flexible enough to play to Murray’s strengths.
Advertisement
“You have to think the movement passes will come to life and then the play-action half-roll shots off of that,” a defensive assistant from a third NFC team added. “But they’ll have to have a running [game] in order to do that, if they want [Murray] to have success under center.”
The defensive assistant wondered whether a Vikings team rich in pass-catchers could commit philosophically to the run game well enough to set up the hesitation in defenses that best accentuates Murray’s dual threat.
The Vikings ranked 27th in rush attempts last season and 23rd in rushing yards. In three of O’Connell’s four seasons, the Vikings have ranked bottom six in rushing attempts. But Minnesota leaned more into the run game during their 2024 season with Darnold, which could speak to a willingness to incorporate it.
“I haven’t seen any [Shanahan-McVay system coaches] have an athlete like Kyler at quarterback really,” the NFC executive said. “So it could be gas. It could be really exciting, actually.”
Team executives and coaches wonder what a motivated Murray could do as he looks to show the Cardinals they made a mistake by giving up on him. Add in a need to earn his next contract — and league decision-makers are more willing to bank on Murray’s production this year than they are over the course of the next three to four.
Advertisement
Murray signed a one-year deal with the Vikings, but he said he won’t focus on that.
“Contractually, it doesn’t really make a difference to me,” he said. “Every year, to me, is a go-out-there-and-prove-it year.”
The Vikings will pay McCarthy, the 2024 10th overall pick, more than they’ll pay Murray, as the Cardinals pay $35.5 million of Murray’s $36.8 million in 2026 guarantees. And officially, as Murray deftly repeated in his introductory news conference, he will compete for the starting job. But few in the NFL believe McCarthy will win that competition against a healthy Murray. Few in the NFL believe the Vikings expect McCarthy to outplay Murray.
Health is one of several factors. McCarthy missed seven games in 2025 due to a combination of a high ankle sprain, a concussion and a fractured hand. He missed the entire 2024 season after tearing his meniscus in training camp. Injuries have contributed to the interruption of his development.
Advertisement
And if Murray plays well in 2026, could the Vikings extend him? Memories of Darnold in the Super Bowl a year after his Vikings tenure will linger.
“If he does well,” the NFC executive said, “they won’t make the mistake of letting a successful quarterback go again. No.”