Welcome to the start of a two-month stretch of the most competitive basketball played at the highest level you will see all year.
The first round of the NBA Playoffs tips off this weekend and there are betting angles at every turn. The experts at NBC Sports and Rotoworld are here to offer their thoughts on the opening round. Each states their case concisely. MIA is the OKC series. At the time of publication, Golden State and Phoenix were playing. While the support for OKC is overwhelming regardless of the winner of the final Play-In game, all deferred because their opponent had not been set and that obviously could affect the length of the series.
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Not surprising our experts agree on most series, but the keys in each series differ among the prognosticators.
Eastern Conference Playoffs – Round 1 Playoff Matchups
Series Winner: Cavaliers -550 / Raptors +400
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD): Raptors
“At price, the Raptors are the bet for me. There are ongoing concerns about Jarrett Allen’s knee, and the Cavs haven’t shown enough consistency to warrant this aggressive price. “
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Cavaliers
“The Cavs went 18-6 with James Harden in the lineup this season and his addition is supposed to keep Cleveland’s championship window open. However, Harden hasn’t made it out of the second round since 2017-18 and with Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland hasn’t made it past the semifinals in the last two seasons. Cleveland advances in the first round either 4-1 or 4-2 but is likely a second round exit again. A 36-year-old Harden won’t change much for Cleveland.”
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Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper): Cavaliers
“Seemingly every sharp player in the NBA market has lined up to support the Cavs chances to win the East this year but I have serious reservations considering the importance of Donovan Mitchell and his propensity for wearing down in the playoffs. The physical Raptors will test the Cavs ability to take some punishment, and my numbers suggest this will be closer than the market expects. The Raps have elite defense and length but are missing some key pieces that can create offense which suggests we may see some ugly low scoring games that the Cavs survive if they can find their clutch offense. Unders look reasonable until they adjust accordingly and will predict the Cavs to come through 4-2.”
Series Winner: Knicks -275 / Hawks +220
Dalzell: Knicks
“The Atlanta Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time, which could be bad news for the Knicks. With a 20-6 record over the second half of the season, Atlanta shouldn’t be slept on. Could this team be similar to last year’s Indiana Pacers? I would say the Hawks have the best chance to be the sleeper team in either conference, so I’ll say this could be one of the longer series of the first round.”
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Dinsick: Knicks
“The recent head-to-head by these teams at full strength convinced the world that the Hawks will play the Knicks close but ultimately wilt in the clutch in the close match ups. Very likely that Mike Brown elects to deploy a double-big lineup for broad stretches to take advantage of the fact that Atlanta is lacking size and has weak backup center options. Fouling trouble for the Hawks, particularly Okongwu, would be a death knell in a given game but the Hawks do have superior transition offense. In the end the transition game may not manifest however because the advantage for NYK on the boards, offensive board especially will carry the day. Knicks advance 4-1 in a series that overs hit, and Hawks are live to cover in their losses.”
Croucher: Hawks
“The Knicks series price doesn’t really cohere with their game 1 price – the Hawks are the bet for me here to win the series. The schedule has been kind, but they have played at an excellent level post Trae trade.”
Series Winner: Timberwolves +280 / Nuggets -350
Dinsick: Nuggets
“The most exciting series of the first round features familiar foes and superstar firepower. The Wolves have been wildly inconsistent through the year but are relatively healthy. The Nuggets are peaking at the right time and are surely a dark horse to win the title. The game-by-game totals are extremely high based on the elite Denver offense and subpar defense but it will take a heroic effort from Anthony Edwards to win four games and advance Minnesota considering the supporting cast is struggling offensively. The Wolves make things interesting by splitting the first four before succumbing to the relentless offense of the Nuggets who win 4-2.”
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Croucher: Timberwolves
“At price, the Wolves are live to pull the upset. There are still questions about Denver’s defense and Anthony Edwards has proven capable of exploding Nikola Jokic’s suspect rim protection.”
Dalzell: Toss-up
“The problem in thinking Denver rolls Minnesota is the fact the Nuggets have the 21st-ranked defense. That’s hard to trust in the playoffs, even with the No. 1-rated offense. The Timberwolves should be able to score and keep this series close. Minnesota beat Denver in the 2023-24 playoffs 4-3 and I can see this series going 7 games again and being the most competitive first round matchup. At least I hope so for viewing purposes.
Series Winner: Rockets -575 / Lakers +400
Dalzell: Rockets
“This series comes down to the availability of Luka Doncic. While a headliner of Kevin Durant vs. LeBron James would be a box office hit 5, 10, and 15 years ago — it’s not nearly as attractive now. If a 41-year-old LeBron James is the main scoring threat and facilitator then the Lakers are cooked. Houston advances 4–1 or 4-2 pending how many games Doncic plays.”
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Dinsick: Rockets
“Wild matchup that could break any direction depending on the health of Luka Doncic. In the absence of Luka and Reeves, the Lakers offense gets a nuclear downgrade but a small defensive upgrade which will make the match up against the Rockets interesting because of their own deficiencies. First to 100 wins and the Rockets manage to pull ahead four times in a 4-3 series where we don’t see Luka.”
Series Winner: Celtics -900 / 76ers +600
Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick): Celtics
“If only Joel Embiid didn’t have to miss this series due to appendicitis surgery this actually would have been a super compelling matchup. Boston has been a top 5 defense and top 3 offense all year and with the return of Tatum who looks in some ways even better than he was pre injury, it doesn’t seem like Philly has much of a chance to compete in this one.”
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Dinsick: Celtics
“The major question swirling that will impact this series from a pricing standpoint is the availability of Joel Embiid. His presence at the play-in game would suggest he is close to a return from his Appendectomy and he matters at least 4 points to the spread in these games so it would surely affect the series pricing when he returns even if it just makes the losses for the Sixers closer rather than give them a fighters chance at advancing. Ultimately, the hard charging Celtics will take advantage of the weak perimeter defense by Philly to excel in the clutch and come through in short order. Expecting BOS to win 4-0 in this lopsided affair.”
Dalzell: Celtics
“Philly was a fun watch during its play-in win over Orlando, but I don’t see the upside in facing the Celtics over the Pistons. Joe Mazzula doesn’t get enough respect for his 50-33 playoff record, including a 12-4 first round record. In three-straight first round series, Boston has won 4-2, 4-1, and 4-1. I have a hard time seeing the 76ers win more than one game in this series so Under 5.5 Games is the best bet next to Celtics in 4.”
Series Winner: Pistons -500 / Magic +380
Dalzell: Pistons
“Last season was the Pistons first time in the playoffs since 2018-19. Detroit squandered its chances off pushing New York to seven games last year and that is likely fresh in the brain of these players and staff. Detroit owns a top three defense and welcomed back Cade Cunningham who knocked some rust off. Detroit should make quick work of their first round matchup.”
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Series Winner: Spurs -2000 / Trail Blazers +1000
Dinsick: Spurs
“Expectations are sky high for the young and inexperienced Spurs and they draw an opponent in the Blazers who have size and an elite offensive playmaker to give them a true test. Reasonable to expect that the Blazers will exercise some physicality against Wemby and make him prove that he can handle playoff intensity and an advanced minutes/usage load. It is tempting to take a shot on Portland at this huge price and then navigate profit if they can get their foot ahead in this series but ultimately the Spurs will likely get home 4-2.”
Krick: Spurs
“Spurs win this in 5, but the key variable is whether Deni Avdija — one of the best foul-drawers in the league — can get Wembanyama in early foul trouble and fundamentally change how this series operates. Beyond that, Portland needs to win the three-point battle: force Castle and Fox to shoot from deep, get stops, and turn this into a track meet. Neither team is elite from three, but that’s exactly the kind of chaotic, pace-driven series that gives the Blazers their best shot.”
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Dalzell: Spurs
“San Antonio has seven players averaging double digit points per game this season and that will be far too much for Portland. Despite this likely being a quick series, the Trail Blazers will get excellent playoff experience taking on the Spurs. Next year, Portland welcomes Damian Lillard back and will likely add a free agent or two as they have an appealing crew with youngsters Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan. I don’t think the Spurs play with their food in the first round and win this series 4-0, maybe 4-1, but watch out for the Trail Blazers next year.”
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
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Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)