Most Britons hoping for a white Christmas this year are likely to be disappointed, if the Met Office’s latest predictions are anything to go by.
Its long-range forecast for 24 December to 7 January says most areas will see “mainly unsettled conditions”, with “spells of wind and rain, followed by showers” – especially in the north and northwest of the UK.
“Some sleet and snow” is also likely at times, the Met Office adds, especially on high ground in the north, but the prospect of a white Christmas nonetheless looks unlikely for the vast majority.
However, with snow notoriously hard to predict in the UK it can’t be ruled out until just yet.
What is the prediction for Christmas Day?
The Met Office has not yet issued a specific forecast for Christmas Day but projects the weather around the festive period will be generally bad, with unsettled or wet weather for most areas
It says, “more settled conditions are possible at times”, most likely across the south in late December and into early January.
Regionally, the Met Office said the rain would be the worst in the north-west and north west of the UK.
It also tells people to expect average temperatures overall, with more settled interludes potentially making way for frost and fog.
When will we get more detail?
The Met Office does not issue full forecasts for regional British weather more than five days in the future. Instead, they rely on more generalised predictions covering the whole country.
The Met Office says this is because of the “chaotic nature of the atmosphere” and how “small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days’ time.”
They say this leads to a situation where they can get a “general feel” of the weather but not issue solid predictions due to the changing nature of the atmosphere.
So to get a proper prediction of what the weather will be like in your area on Christmas Day you will likely need to wait till 20 December.
What is the chance of a white Christmas?
Speaking from region to region, the chance is pretty low, but technically there’s been a white Christmas roughly half of the time each year since 1960.
This is measured by the Met Office recording snowfall across at least 5% of its network, although this is usually clustered in the highest hills and mountains of the UK.
Just over 10% of Met Office’s network reported snow last Christmas but none reported it lying on the ground.
The kind of white Christmas that comes with heavy snow on the ground across large parts of the country has only happened four times since 1960 in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.
With as little as a 1C change in temperature making all the difference even the best forecasts cannot provide the accuracy needed until as little as two days in the future.
For most parts of the UK, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it is likely to snow, with the country more likely to see snow in January and February.
Snow actually settles on the ground for an average of three days in December, the Met Office says, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March.