Expectations of fresh inflows in the new fiscal year and easing default risks lifted investor confidence on Monday, fuelling another rally at the bourse as the new fiscal year began on a high note.
“Investors are showing positive sentiment upon expectations of new inflows to come in the new fiscal year,” said Ahfaz Mustafa, CEO of Ismail Iqbal Securities.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index climbed to an intraday high of 125,385.14, gaining 1,006.08 points, or 0.81%, and touched a low of 124,500.20, reflecting an uptick of 121.14 points, or 0.10%, from the previous close of 124,379.06.
Investor optimism was bolstered by China extending a rollover and refinancing of $3.4 billion in commercial loans, enabling Islamabad to meet the IMF-mandated target of maintaining foreign exchange reserves above $14 billion by June 30.
The package includes a $2.1 billion rollover of funds parked in the State Bank of Pakistan for the past three years, along with a $1.3 billion refinancing of a previously repaid loan.
The Chinese support comes as Pakistan emerges as the most improved economy globally in terms of sovereign risk reduction.
According to data cited by Adviser to the Finance Minister Khurram Schehzad from Bloomberg Intelligence, Pakistan recorded the sharpest drop in default probability among emerging markets, with its CDS-implied default probability falling from 59% to 47% — an improvement of 1,100 basis points.
In a post on X, Schehzad attributed the development to “macroeconomic stabilisation, structural reforms, timely repayments, and strengthened IMF engagement,” alongside credit outlook upgrades by agencies such as S&P and Fitch.
Other economies showing risk improvement include Argentina, Tunisia, and Nigeria, while countries such as Turkiye, Ecuador, Egypt, and Gabon saw a deterioration in sovereign credit risk.
On Friday, the KSE-100 Index surged by 2,332.61 points, or 1.91%, to a record close of 124,379.07 points, up from 122,046.46. The day’s high reached 125,285.05 while the low was 122,222.70, as the bourse posted its highest-ever closing level.