US businesses and consumers paid nearly 90 percent of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs last year, according to new Federal Reserve research that undercuts the president’s claim that foreign companies would bear the burden.
The study by the New York Fed found that the majority of tariff costs were passed through to Americans in the first 11 months of 2025, although exporters shouldered an increasing amount as the year progressed.
“Our results show that the bulk of the tariff incidence continues to fall on US firms and consumers,” the study’s authors wrote in a blog post on Thursday.
“[They] continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.”
The Trump administration has insisted that the sweeping tariffs imposed on trading partners during the president’s second term will be paid for by companies looking to export goods into the US.
“BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, LARGELY FROM COUNTRIES THAT HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE UNITED STATES FOR MANY YEARS, LAUGHING ALL THE WAY, WILL START FLOWING INTO THE USA,” Trump posted on Truth Social in August 2025, shortly before his so-called “reciprocal tariffs” took effect.
However, others in the administration, such as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have acknowledged that US retailers, such as Walmart, have been affected by the decision to raise the levies to levels last seen in the opening decades of the 20th century.