Yesterday, our own Bob Osgood reviewed the pitching staff and noted this when it came to Connelly Early’s projections:
Early’s 16% K-BB, and near-3.50 ERA in both projections, is startling. Of course, thanks to the logjam of pitchers on this team, he’s projected for only 50-60 innings at the moment. That being said, there are only six starting pitchers on The BAT, and seven starting pitchers on Steamer who are projected to have a better ERA than Connelly Early in the American League.
Early’s biggest strength at first glance, to put it in the most cliche and lazy way possible, is that he “knows how to pitch.” More specifically, he’s got a fastball, curveball, changeup, slider and sweeper, and while he’s still working to polish his arsenal, they were all good enough to be used in major league action down the stretch last year. This is the type of guy who may not need extremely high velocity to have a successful career because his wide array of pitches can keep hitters off balance at a foundational level.
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But what if he did add some velocity on top of that? Even just a couple miles per hour?
What we know about Early is that he was listed at 6-3, 195lbs in 2025, had room to add some muscle, is from a military background and is a diligent worker, and Alex Cora told him to get “bigger and stronger” this winter. All of that brings us to this:
Now of course, what we don’t know is the accuracy of that radar in the video. But if it’s real, oh boy! It’s still a little early for “best shape of their life” content, but if Connelly Early is sitting at 95mph while screwing around in social media content videos in January, it’s a pretty noteworthy development considering he only touched 95mph on eight pitches in his five major league starts (including postseason) last year.
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And with Early, it’s not your typical “OH WOW, LOOK AT THAT GAS!” obsession we usually have with pitchers. It doesn’t matter if a guy can touch a 100mph if he doesn’t have the secondary stuff. What makes Early unique is he’s already got a foundation of other pitches he can mix and match at 23-years-old. So if he’s adding an extra notch of velocity on top of all this secondary stuff, it’s going to play in a big way. Hitters can adjust to extreme heat, but they have a much more difficult time adjusting to increasing departures in velocity between fastballs and secondary pitches when a guy can land them all for strikes at any time in any count.
And guess what? That might be what we have on our hands here with Early. He’s got his work cut out to be one of the top dogs in this stacked rotation, but he may be on track to force his way to the mound in a Boston uniform every five days. I can’t wait to track him in spring training!