UFC Vegas 106 predictions, odds, full card preview: Does Gilbert Burns have one run left in him?

After a month on the road, the UFC is back in the “world-famous” Apex for UFC Vegas 106.

The welterweight division is as hot as it’s been in years, with Jack Della Maddalena becoming its newest champion at UFC 315, and the spotlight remains on the division this Saturday night. In UFC Vegas 106’s main event, one-time title challenger Gilbert Burns returns with hopes of snapping his three-fight losing skid against the surging, undefeated contender Michael Morales.

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This is essentially a one-fight card as far as meaningful stakes are concerned. Outside of the main event, UFC Vegas 106 has good violence potential sprinkled throughout, and we’re always here for that. However, it’s still, for the most part, what we’ve come to expect from these Las Vegas fight nights in 2025.

👑 UFC Vegas 106’s lineup Crown grade: C- 👑

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

170 pounds: Gilbert Burns (+550) vs. Michael Morales (-800)

Burns vs. Morales is a great matchup, and as good of a litmus test as the 25-year-old Ecuadorian could ask for. On Burns’ side, he can prove how much he has left in the tank with age 40 staring him in the face.

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The “gatekeeper” term has started getting thrown at Burns thanks to his losing streak, but that’s not totally fair. You have to look at who the perennial top contender has lost to, and lately it’s been nothing but champs, former champs and top contenders.

Before that, Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman were the only ones to get past “Durinho” as a welterweight, so Morales will get his moment of truth to prove he’s still elite. The big worry for Burns is that the damage he’s already taken will increase Morales’ likelihood of torching him.

Make no mistake, Morales looks like he has every tool imaginable to beat the brakes off Burns. That’s why he’s favored as largely as he is. The odds are wild when you really dive into it, because Morales’ previous most experienced opponents were the ones he faced in his last two fights: Neil Magny and Jake Matthews. He passed both tests with flying colors, but in 17 fights he has yet to fight beyond three rounds. That’s where Burns will want to drag him.

Unfortunately, as we know, Father Time is undefeated. Burns’ last three losses weren’t quick submissions or anything of the sort. Belal Muhammad and Brady took Burns 25 minutes apiece, while Della Maddalena made it to Round 3 before stopping Burns via a nasty knee and punches.

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Every physical advantage points toward Morales here. He’s dynamic, quick, lengthy — just an overall nightmare for Burns on the feet. The BJJ specialist shouldn’t even bother playing around in the striking, and instead look to test Morales on the ground by any means necessary.

Burns is being overlooked far more than he should be. At the same time, Morales is deservedly a part of this new wave of welterweight dynamos.

Pick: Morales

205 pounds: Paul Craig (+400) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-550)

UFC Vegas 106’s co-main event could be the most Paul Craig fight ever, and that would only be fitting as it’s the last on his contract.

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At 37 and 1-5 in his last six fights, Craig has returned to his old stomping grounds at light heavyweight after a stab at middleweight. Ultimately, we know what to expect from Craig, and that’s never changed much. He’ll get beat up to the point of holding half his consciousness before either getting finished or pulling off a submission out of nowhere.

The 28-year-old Bellato is a heavy-handed tank who will fall into the usual Craig venus flytrap, or put the lights out before tangling on the ground. With all the damage Craig has taken over the years, I’ve got to lean toward his counterpart in this matchup.

Pick: Bellato

155 pounds: Sodiq Yusuff (+115) vs. Mairon Santos (-135)

“Super” Sodiq Yusuff has had enough of the featherweight division. Against Mairon Santos, the former 145-pound contender will return to the lightweight pool for the first time since 2017, before he was in the UFC.

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UFC Vegas 106 consists of many matchups in which a UFC veteran is tasked with a relative newcomer. For Santos, this is only his third appearance after winning “The Ultimate Fighter 32.” And with that in mind, I just don’t see what the oddsmakers see here.

Yusuff was overwhelmed by the power and aggression of Diego Lopes in his last fight, but there’s no shame in that, considering what the one-time title challenger has done since. Before that, Yusuff lost the chess match against seasoned striking legend Edson Barboza. The guy is still just 31 though, and an excellent striker in his own right.

Santos hasn’t fought someone quite like Yusuff yet and struggled in his last time out in a split-decision win over Francis Marshall. The Brazilian will be hanging around for a while, but this matchup feels like a bit of too much too soon — unless the size difference plays a significant role. Regardless, I have to take the higher-level competitor, Yusuff.

Pick: Yusuff

185 pounds: Dustin Stoltzfus (+230) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (-285)

Kill-or-be-killed fighters are just the best. In the middleweight main card action, we get two trains colliding in Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev.

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To be fair to Ruziboev, he doesn’t necessarily fit that description because of his nine losses, only two have been finishes. Of his 35 wins, however, two are decisions. This absolute giant stands at 6-foot-5 and fought at welterweight last year. Sure, it didn’t go his way against Joaquin Buckley, but this is a large dude for these divisions. The 5-foot-11 Stoltzfus will be looking up at his Uzbekistani opponent.

Stoltzfus’ relative recklessness and length disadvantages put him in a prime position to get busted up by Ruziboev, adding to the massive highlight reel.

Pick: Ruziboev

145 pounds: Julian Erosa (+150) vs. Melquizael Costa (-185)

If “Juicy J” Julian Erosa fights, you better watch.

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My fellow Washingtonian is a complete madman in the Octagon, willing to go to war much more often than he arguably should. His opponent Melquizael Costa will be happy to oblige in their meeting, as the Brazilian has been on a good roll of his own lately, winning three in a row.

This matchup gets the most interesting if Costa looks to take the action to the ground. Erosa is savvy with his submission game and glad to risk jumping on something that might not be there. That’s when his fights get the wildest, as he’s forced to sink or swim.

Costa might have an overall more solid game in 2025 than Erosa, but the offensive toolbox possessed by Erosa will be a lot to deal with. Expect Costa to take damage over 15 minutes, needing a finish if it goes late.

Pick: Erosa

Preliminary notes

Although she’s far removed from her days as a top 10 strawweight, seeing Tecia Pennington open the night is still weird. Arguably, she should be on a six-fight winning streak. Instead, the “Tiny Tornado” will look to boot the once-promising prospect Luana Pinheiro from the roster, as the latter rides a three-fight losing skid.

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At lightweight, Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises could be a pretty interesting technical battle on the ground if the talented grappler Moises gets advantageous positions.

Other than those two, the UFC Vegas 106 prelims exist. They are indeed going to happen.

Quick picks:

Matheus Camilo (-225) def. Gabriel Green (+185)

Jared Gordon (-125) def. Thiago Moises (+105)

Yadier Del Valle (-500) def. Connor Matthews (+375)

Tainara Lisboa (+145) def. Luana Santos (-175)

Denise Gomes (-600) def. Elise Reed (+425)

Hyun Sung Park (-185) def. Carlos Hernandez (+150)

Tecia Pennington (-350) def. Luana Pinheiro (+280)