You want to torment your favorite college football fan at the next tailgate? Start up a little game of What-if. Over the course of thousands of plays in hundreds of games in a college football season, a few truly pivotal ones define the year and shape a team’s trajectory. Spot those, highlight those, and debate what might have been had those plays gone the other way.
Here are a dozen plays that shaped the 2024 College Playoff field, plays that could well have resulted in a very different field than we have right now. Consider what might have been…
Sept. 14, LSU at South Carolina
The play: Two, actually, but the more egregious and painful one came in the fourth quarter. The Gamecocks had two separate pick-sixes wiped off the board because of penalties, and the fourth-quarter one could have put South Carolina up 40-29 with six minutes remaining in the game. South Carolina would go on to lose 36-33, the first of its three losses on the season.
The effect: South Carolina caught fire right as Alabama was flickering out; had the Gamecocks hit December with only two losses (and a win over the eventual ACC champion) they would have made the field.
Oct. 5, Kansas at Arizona State
The play: Down 31-28, and with just 16 seconds left on the clock, Arizona State’s Sam Levitt finds Jordyn Tyson in the end zone for a miraculous go-ahead touchdown. Final score: Sun Devils 35, Jayhawks 31.
The effect: Without that win, Arizona State doesn’t get anywhere near the Big 12 title game, much less a first-round CFP bye.
Oct. 12, Ole Miss at LSU
The play: Down 23-16 with just over two minutes remaining in the game, LSU is facing a do-or-die fourth-and-6 on its own 29. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier finds Mason Taylor for a 16-yard completion, and a few plays later, LSU scores a tying touchdown. The Tigers will go on to win in overtime.
The effect: The loss was Ole Miss’ second of three on the season, and effectively buried the Rebels in an SEC hole from which they couldn’t escape. Even a two-loss Ole Miss team would have surely made this year’s playoff field over SMU or Indiana.
Oct. 19, Alabama at Tennessee
The play: With 5:52 remaining in the game, down 17-14, Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava hits Chris Brazzell for a 16-yard touchdown to take the lead for good. Alabama would respond by totaling negative-1 yard on its final three drives.
The effect: If Alabama had flipped any of its three losses, it would have made the CFP field. Strangely, the Tide put up their toughest fight against their strongest opponent; Alabama had held Tennessee in check almost the entire game.
Oct. 26, SMU at Duke
The play: Duke had rallied back from a 21-7 deficit to force overtime. SMU took the ball first, and scored a touchdown. Duke followed with a one-play, 25-yard touchdown strike of its own. Hoping to capitalize on the momentum and the home-field advantage, Duke went for two and the win … but Maalik Murphy’s pass attempt to Eli Pancol was incomplete, and SMU won, 28-27.
Toughest Beat I’ve ever seen.
• SMU had 6 turnovers, Duke had 0
• Duke has Game-Winning Field Goal Blocked
• Lose on failed 2-Pt conversion in OT (Pass Interference not called)— College Football Report (@CFBRep) October 27, 2024
The effect: A loss earlier in the season wouldn’t have kept SMU out of the ACC championship, but it would have kept a three-loss Mustang team out of the CFP.
Nov. 23, Penn State at Minnesota
The play: Leading by just a single point, with three minutes remaining in the game and facing fourth-and-1 on its own 34, Penn State ran a fake punt and gained 32 yards. The Nittany Lions held onto the ball for the rest of the game to claim a narrow victory.
The effect: A two-loss Penn State would have fallen out of the Big Ten championship and, later, possibly out of the CFP entirely.
Nov. 23, Ole Miss at Florida
The play: Pick one: the interception Jaxson Dart threw with 1:43 remaining, or the one he threw with 17 seconds remaining. Game over.
The effect: Down 24-17, Dart had the opportunity to lead Ole Miss back into the playoff hunt; instead, the loss to Florida effectively eliminated the three-loss Rebels from consideration.
Nov. 23, BYU at Arizona State
The play: With one second on the clock and Arizona State leading 28-23 — and after clearing the field of storming students — BYU attempted a Hail Mary that fell short when the receiver hit the ground at the 2-yard line.
The effect: Had BYU won, it would have advanced to the Big 12 championship game instead of Arizona State. That close to glory.
Nov. 30, Miami at Syracuse
The play: Down 41-35, Miami drove the ball to the Syracuse 8 with under five minutes in the game. But an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty forced Miami back to the 23, and it could only clamber back to the 10-yard line. With 3:42 remaining, Mario Cristobal opted to go for the field goal, and he would never see the ball again.
The effect: Final score, 41-38. Miami was moved behind Alabama in the CFP standings, and so never had the chance to move into the final CFP slot after SMU lost to Clemson.
Nov. 30, Georgia Tech at Georgia
The play: With just over two minutes remaining and leading 27-20, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King drove forward into the Georgia line but fumbled away the ball. That gave the Bulldogs possession at the Tech 32; they soon tied to force the instant-classic, eight-overtime run that ended in a Georgia victory. But King was clearly targeted; had officials called that properly, Georgia Tech would have had the ball and first down at midfield. Not a guarantee of a Tech win, but the odds would be much more in their favor.
The effect: Georgia had already clinched a spot in the SEC championship, but at three losses would be facing a do-or-die prospect, rather than a seeding one. And would a three-loss SEC champion Georgia team have been seeded second?
Dec. 7, Clemson at SMU, part 1
The play: With just 16 seconds remaining, down 31-24, SMU’s Kevin Jennings found Roderick Daniels in the end zone to cap a frenetic 17-point fourth quarter for the Mustangs.
The effect: SMU would lose the game 16 seconds later, but that late surge was enough to convince the CFP selection committee that the Mustangs belonged in the playoff. Would they have gotten the nod had they not scored on that last drive?
Dec. 7, Clemson at SMU, part 2
The play: With no time on the clock, Clemson’s Nolan Hauser, a true freshman, boots a 56-yard field goal to give Clemson a 34-31 win and another ACC title.
The effect: A victory was the only way three-loss Clemson was getting into the CFP. The kick wasn’t do-or-die, but after holding a lead right up until the final seconds of the game, and facing a motivated SMU squad, Clemson’s chances in a potential overtime were dubious at best.
Eleven games remain to determine a national champion. Which plays will we look back on as pivotal six weeks from now?