The 152nd Open Championship begins at Royal Troon on Thursday, and it is tough to pick a winner of a tournament that is living up to its name.
That has not stopped our writers from trying though, as well as offering a dark horse to watch and a player they fancy to struggle.
Rory McIlroy knows he needs a victory or else his major championship drought will extend to a decade, with his painful US Open collapse at Pinehurst fresh in the memory.
Bryson DeChambeau was that week’s winner, and is one of the more likely American contenders alongside World No 1 Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa.
Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton are England’s two best chances, but last week’s Scottish Open winner Bob MacIntyre will attract plenty of support from his home crowd. Tiger Woods tees it up, and will once again be the source of fascination. These are our writers’ predictions.
Winner
James Corrigan: Bryson DeChambeau
Now has the maturity to accept the vagaries of links golf and to hold back when necessary. Saying that, it is not beyond the realms that he could try to drive the first three greens.
Neil Squires: Scottie Scheffler
He’s World No 1 for a reason. His run of success this year is extraordinary and there is no reason why he can’t carry it on at Troon. Unless he gets himself arrested again.
Tom Cary: Ludvig Aberg
Went so close to winning a major in his rookie year when he finished second at the Masters back in April. Started fast at the US Open, too. Fancy him to win his maiden Open.
Daniel Zeqiri: Collin Morikawa
Royal Troon rewards straight driving and the 2020 Open winner has found 72.03 per cent of fairways on the PGA Tour this season, the second-best percentage of all players. Rock solid recent form after a top-five at the Scottish Open and has finishes of T3-T4-T14 at the year’s first three majors.
Kate Rowan: Xander Schauffele
My heart says Rory McIlroy and I hope I am proved wrong here but my head says Schauffele. The Californian will be boosted by having finally won his breakthrough major at the US PGA at Valhalla. The 30-year-old has a wonderful knack of driving the ball low and this obviously suits links golf.
Frankie Christou: Collin Morikawa
The two-time major winner has been back to his best again this year after abandoning trying to draw the ball and going back to his dart-like fade with his irons. Has swapped his 5-wood for a yet-to-be released 3-iron and will be adding a Hi-Toe 60 degree wedge to his bag to fine-tune his game to links golf as much as possible.
Dark horse
JC: Bob MacIntyre
Has obviously enjoyed himself since his dream win at the Scottish Open on Sunday. Beware the hungover golfer. His Renaissance glory will have him freewheeling.
NS: Tyrrell Hatton
The Englishman is overdue a decent Open and is in the form to produce it after a third-place finish at last week’s Valderrama LIV event. The venue works for him – he delivered his best Open finish of fifth when the championship was last staged at Troon in 2016.
TC: Russell Henley
A seriously dark horse in that he has missed five of nine cuts at The Open and has never finished higher than 20th. But who saw Ben Curtis coming? Or Todd Hamilton? Or Brian Harman for that matter? Henley is playing decent golf and has made the cut at all three majors this season, with his best finish being a T-7 at the U.S. Open.
DZ: Cameron Young
Another American who is a superb driver of the ball, although more known for his power. Young has finished second and T8 on two Open appearances, on very different layouts at St Andrews and Hoylake. Young comes into The Open on the back of two top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour so current form is encouraging too.
KR: Justin Rose
Part of what makes The Open so special is that someone with a pedigree like Rose’s can come from outside the ranks. The 2013 US Open winner and 2016 Olympic gold medalist, who was forced to qualify for this year’s tournament via Open qualification at Cinque Ports, has nerves of steel and also the hunger of not having won the Claret Jug.
FC: Sahith Theegala
Driving is a weakness but being able to take long irons off the tee allows the young American to close the gap on the field and lean on his amazing shot-shaping skills. Missed the cut at Hoylake last year but his T4 at The Renaissance Club last week shows he has figured out how to play links courses.
Disappointing week for…
JC: Tiger Woods
The late-early draw has gone against him and a battered body that needs plenty of preparation between rounds so he is far more likely to miss the cut than finish in the top 30
NS: Tiger Woods
Even though the Ayrshire links is a manageable walk for Woods, it is asking too much of the three-time Open champion to contend given how little competitive golf he plays these days.
TC: Rory McIlroy
I usually back him to end his 10-year drought, so this time I’ll back him to miss the cut and see whether that lifts the curse.
DZ: Tommy Fleetwood
Ticks all the boxes for a potential Open winner but never quite seems to take the step forward required when an opportunity presents itself. When his name appears on the first page of a major leaderboard, too often a bogey or two follows and the cycle repeats. Short-range putting is always a worry.
KR: John Rahm
Rahm’s ongoing decline could potentially be very difficult to watch. Hopefully, the Spaniard takes inspiration from his country’s football team and Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz to help reverse this slide.
FC: Scottie Scheffler
The fact the rest of the field can putt from 100 feet off the green on some holes nullifies the World No 1’s scrambling prowess. As we saw at Pinehurst last month, he struggles on fast fairways and greens and I expect it to be the same here.
Would love to see…
JC: Rory McIlroy win
In 2011 he bounced back from that final-round 80 at the Masters to win the US Open. If he does the same this week and averts going the full decade without a major it will be a joyous scene.
NS: Michael Hendry make the weekend
The New Zealander is in remission from leukaemia and was undergoing chemotherapy 12 months ago when he was due to play at Royal Liverpool. He is playing this year on the medical exemption of all medical exemptions.
TC: Tommy Fleetwood win
Such a good player. There has to be a major win in there. Then again, we said the same thing about Lee Westwood, Paul Casey, Colin Montgomerie etc. While it wouldn’t resonate quite as much as it would have at Hoylake 12 months ago, a Fleetwood win would go down very well with the galleries.
DZ: Ludvig Aberg follow in Henrik Stenson’s footsteps
Golf sorely needs superstars, and 24-year-old Aberg’s frightening consistency means he is well on his way to becoming one. Fellow Swede Henrik Stenson won at Troon in 2016, but it would be a tall order to win on his first Open start with all the fanfare surrounding the tournament. This is no ordinary debutant though; he finished second on his first look round Augusta National in April.
KR: Bob MacIntyre win
There seems to be something of a curse on winners of the Scottish Open lifting the Claret Jug the following week but what a magical atmosphere it would be to have a Scot victorious on home soil.
FC: Joe Dean do well
In addition to Tommy Fleetwood, Dean is the next Englishman I am hoping does well. The 29-year-old was a Morrisons’ delivery driver and struggled to pay for travel on Tour before banking £170,000 by finishing runner’s up at the Kenya Open in February. Every Open has a feel-good story and I hope this year it is Joe Dean.
Unlikely story line
JC: Stenson v Mickelson
For some reason – and, let’s be honest, it’s LIV – the R&A has done nothing to commemorate the incredible duel at Troon’s most recent Open. It would be delicious if the pair were up top again.
NS: Hole in one at The Postage Stamp
Gene Sarazen, then 71, managed it in his plus-fours in the 1973 Open but the shortest hole on the rota is more likely to be a card-wrecker.
TC: Hatton buys Troon house
Tyrrell Hatton shoots two rounds of 80 to miss the cut by a mile but decides to buy the house which is up for sale between Troon’s 2nd and the 16th holes because he is having such a good time and wants to stay for the weekend.
DZ: Postage Stamp moans
Someone, probably an American and probably a LIV player, will cross into the sacrilegious by saying The Postage Stamp is unfair. Naturally, this will follow a big number, probably involving their ball coming to rest directly against the face of a revetted bunker. Woe is me.
KR: Bryson DeChambeau gives driving tips to royalty
For Princess Anne, who visited The Open in St Andrews two years ago, attending Royal Troon is far from an impossibility, as she returned to public duties last week following a minor head injury. The story that would go viral would be Her Highness receiving driving tips from DeChambeau, with the two-time US Open winner documenting it all on his YouTube channel! His stated desire is to get Joe Biden and Donald Trump involved in one of his videos, so why not royalty?
FC: Tiger returns
Only unlikely due to an uneasy finish to the Masters and missed cuts at Pinehurst and Valhalla. Royal Troon is relatively flat so proving to the world he can still hang with the world’s best should be achievable.
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