Each year, we are presented with one or two critical swing picks in fantasy football drafts — moments at which one choice leads to season-long success, and another to despondence and ruin.
Just think of last year’s Breece Hall vs. Bijan Robinson choice, or Garrett Wilson vs. Saquon Barkley. The prior season, it was Tony Pollard vs. CeeDee Lamb.
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In recent fantasy history, there is perhaps no greater example of the swing pick phenomenon than Robert Woods vs. Cooper Kupp in 2021. That year, Woods delivered nine good-but-not-spectacular games for the Rams before tearing an ACL during practice, ending his season. Kupp, meanwhile, produced one of the greatest individual seasons in NFL history, winning the receiving triple crown.
(Today, absolutely no one will admit to having favored Woods over Kupp in 2021, even though Bobby Trees was the community’s slight preference in terms of ADP. So it goes. Revisionist history and whatnot.)
Unfortunately, we can’t typically identify the league-tilting swing picks months in advance each season. But attempting to do so is a useful exercise.
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Ranking and analysis has only just begun around here, so it’s a bit early to pretend we have a complete understanding of the fantasy landscape in the season ahead. However, if you made me attempt to pinpoint the neighborhood within 2025 fantasy drafts that’s likely to determine league winners, I’d direct your attention just outside the top-50 overall picks.
When the first of the non-Ashton Jeanty rookie running backs is taken, four or five others will fly off the board inside the next dozen-or-so selections. That’s exactly how it went down in our most recent Yahoo staff mock draft. Nailing the best option from that tier of first-year RBs seems like one of the key choices ahead of us in 2025.
And this, at last, brings us to Steelers rookie Kaleb Johnson. He’s my preferred non-Jeanty rookie back, if I can only take one.
You won’t find clear industry consensus on Johnson, because … well, because the incoming class of rookie running backs is pretty awesome. Just in case you somehow hadn’t heard. Also, multiple talented rookies landed in terrific spots in terms of both team context and projected workload.
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If you happen to be an R.J. Harvey enthusiast, I get it. Fun player, terrific environment in Denver. You won’t need to scroll far down the list to find Harvey in the early Yahoo RB ranks. Quinshon Judkins, Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson are close behind, too. It’s tough to believe there isn’t a potential league-winning answer in that group of rookies — possibly more than one.
Again, however, Kaleb Johnson is my priority. This is simply a perfect storm of opportunity, talent and fit.
Let’s begin with the team’s enthusiasm for the player, conveyed here by offensive coordinator Arthur Smith:
For anyone who isn’t familiar with Smith’s general vibe, this is about as outwardly geeked as you’re gonna see him. By his public standards, this is unrestrained hype.
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Also, Smith is definitely not wrong about overlap between Iowa’s run concepts and his own. Johnson was an absolute monster as an outside zone runner at the college level and he’s about to receive a steady diet of such carries with the Steelers. Last season, Najee Harris handled 189 zone rush attempts according to PFF, the third highest total in the league. Johnson is stepping into a workload of exactly the right size and shape.
[2025 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers]
Pittsburgh spent a Day 2 pick on Johnson — the team’s second selection in the 2025 draft — so he was clearly a target. He’ll now do his running behind a young and talented offensive line, featuring emerging star Zach Frazier at center. Everything about his situation seems pretty close to ideal. He’ll share backfield touches with Jaylen Warren, but every other rookie back who isn’t Jeanty is likely headed for some sort of committee arrangement (Harvey included, although the zealots won’t acknowledge it).
As for Johnson’s actual talent, please understand that he’s the guy who inflicted this sort of pain on Nebraska:
Absurd.
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Johnson rushed for 1,537 yards last season at 6.4 YPC, scoring 23 touchdowns while never fumbling and gaining 4.4 yards after contact per attempt. His film is full of wow plays:
Johnson reached the end zone in every game for Iowa last year, despite the fact that opposing defenses were focused entirely on him. In fact, he saw eight or more defenders in the box on over 50% of his collegiate snaps, a level of attention that was unmatched among top prospects.
If you are the type of ball-knower who thinks an unsatisfactory 10-yard split at the combine invalidates a collegiate career, then you are probably out on Johnson and can’t be convinced to rethink your position. We will simply mention the fact that this 225-pound back has reached 22-plus mph on the field; his tape is full of breakaway runs and humiliated defenders.
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So yeah, when the timer is ticking down and I’m staring at the names of six rookie running backs in the draft queue, Kaleb is my guy. He’s about to receive a huge slice of the workload that previously belonged to Harris — 263 carries and 299 touches last season — which gives him a path to 1,400 total yards and double-digit touchdowns.