Four weeks are in the books, which means four managers in your Yahoo Fantasy guillotine-style leagues presented by Liquid Death are no longer around. It’s a wicked game, isn’t it? Of course, it’s wickedly fun when you’re on the good side of things.
Every week I’ll examine the most common NFL players on those cut teams and try to figure out where the puck is headed. I will also offer some FAB advice ($1,000 cap is the Yahoo default), but please remember this area is highly context-sensitive and manager-specific.
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Waiver strategy in guillotine-style leagues
If you’re new to this format, it’s critical to understand that waiver strategy is significantly different in the world of guillotine-style leagues.
You can often win a traditional fantasy league with modest help from the waiver wire, maybe a timely pickup or two. Sure, it’s great if you crush the market and land the right guys, and the best managers will always aim to be smart on the wire, but if your drafted team stays healthy and runs pure, some years that might be enough.
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Immediate needs vs. playing the long game
In guillotine-style leagues, the eventual winning manager will have assembled a MONSTER team at the end of the year, a juggernaut, a Pro Bowl-type of roster. And the way you build that beast is usually by having resources all season — by not blowing the majority of your FAB on a tantalizing early star. It’s pivotal that you understand that the waiver wire gets stronger and stronger every week in guillotine-style leagues, because the eliminated manager is coming from a smaller and smaller league size every week.
Unless you have a draft touched by the fantasy angels, you are unlikely to win a guillotine-style league without a successful and careful waiver-wire strategy.
[Eliminated or looking for more fun? There’s still time to join or create another Yahoo Fantasy guillotine-style league]
My guillotine-style league strategy is centered on the concept that I like my squad early in the year and I am confident I can beat at least one team per week while the field of opponents is large. Therefore, while I will dip my toes into the FAB market in the early part of the season, my primary goal is to keep major reserves in play for later in the year, when bye weeks hit and injuries are more prevalent — and the pool of opponents is smaller (so advancing is harder, in theory). Again, I urge you to remember: the waiver wire in guillotine-style leagues gets stronger as the year gets deeper, a key reason to be judicious with your resources.
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Not everyone will share my strategy, of course. If you want to chase major improvements and use the bulk of your FAB to load up quickly, then shoot your shot. Play the strategy you’re comfortable with. Just understand that my recommendations are predicated on being careful early, and if you prefer something more aggressive, you’ll have to jump the numbers up. You know your room better than an outsider does.
Understanding FAB recommendations
Going forward I will offer weekly FAB recommendations in three buckets:
Proactive: This means you highly covet this player, perhaps might even need this player. I realize these bids might not win if someone in your league is lighting money on fire, but as described above, that’s often a short-sighted mistake in this format. With the bye weeks kicking in, I might consider a proactive bid more than I did in September.
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Reactive: This means you desire the player but the cost has to make sense for your short- or long-term strategy.
Keep Them Honest: This is a bid that is not designed to win, but might surprisingly land a player if your opponents are distracted by other talent available or unexpectedly passive that week. I often compare notes with other experienced guillotine-style players and we’re surprised at how often the Keep Them Honest bids actually win (this is also a portable strategy for regular season-long leagues; you never know when strange market behavior will come about).
When a first-round pick hits the waiver wire: Something in the $250-300 range is likely the target range for a no-doubt first-round player before we hit Halloween. While that won’t necessarily be high enough to win, that’s probably my theoretical max for a first-round talent this early in the year, but ultimately you have to make the call that’s right for you.
Finally, understand that the FAB recommendations are with the assumption that you won’t be making offers for every available player.
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Here are this week’s top-10 players on eliminated teams:
1. David Montgomery, RB, Lions (23% of eliminated teams)
The nasty Cleveland defense chewed him up in Week 4, and the high-powered Lions didn’t even manage 300 yards. At least the leaky Bengals defense waits for Week 5.
FAB Recommendation:
2. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (21%)
Backup QB Jake Browning was so good two years ago, but he’s been lost through two starts this year, dragging down the entire offense with him. To be fair, the Bengals are also saddled with the worst offensive line in the league, and the schedule has been difficult. Detroit and Green Bay are up next.
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FAB Recommendation:
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (18%)
In-game injuries are a fantasy killer, especially in this format. It sounds like Jackson will likely miss time with his hamstring injury, making him a difficult call in the interim.
FAB Recommendation:
4. Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers (18%)
There’s no escaping that teammates Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen are playing well every week, essentially pushing McConkey down to WR3 status. The Chargers also lost OT Joe Alt to a high-ankle sprain in Week 4; he’s expected to miss multiple weeks.
FAB Recommendation:
5. A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles (18%)
The Eagles didn’t have a second-half completion in the win at Tampa Bay, and Brown and Jalen Hurts have never had a strong rapport. With Philly sitting at 4-0, there’s no desperate need to fix anything.
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FAB Recommendation:
6. Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers (17%)
His surprise scratch Sunday morning caught some fantasy managers by surprise, and now Warren steps into a Week 5 bye. We also can’t ignore that Kenneth Gainwell played well in Warren’s absence — perhaps this backfield will be closer to a 50-50 split moving forward.
FAB Recommendation:
7. DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (15%)
All the Brown concerns also apply to Smith. The Eagles remain one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league, and most of their short touchdowns belong to the power-running game.
FAB Recommendation:
8. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins (14%)
He’s a modest WR27 on the half-point PPR leaderboard, mostly because he’s played all four games (the wideout position has been a mess this year). Waddle should see an opportunity boost with Tyreek Hill out for the season, but limited QB Tua Tagovailoa also caps the upside.
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FAB Recommendation:
9. Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (14%)
It was a bad time for his worst start of the year, setting new lows for YPA and rating while throwing just one touchdown pass. Now, the Bears step into a Week 5 bye, and Williams is just a depth option for the immediate future.
FAB Recommendation:
10. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys (13%)
He’s still multiple weeks from a return, and obviously some of his managers weren’t able to offset the absence of their first-round pick in Week 4. Lamb also might need a “show-me” week upon return before we can start him with any confidence.
FAB Recommendation: