Last week ATS: 11-4 (7-1 National, 4-3 B1G)
Season ATS: 97-90 (44-45 National, 53-45 B1G)
About the only blemish last week was Ohio State giving up a late touchdown, allowing Purdue to cover in West Lafayette. The late score was even tougher to swallow since it was setup by two personal foul penalties, giving the Boilermakers a bunch of free yardage.
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Other than the Buckeyes failing to cover, it was a great picks week. We almost had the straight-up upset pick of Iowa over Oregon but at least we still banked the cover.
Now to roll last week’s momentum over to this week.
National Games
No. 9 Notre Dame (-11.5) v. No. 22 Pitt – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Pitt has worked their way into the College Football Playoff discussion, entering this week’s game with a 7-2 record. Freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel has burst onto the scene, throwing for at least 300 yards in four of five games since taking over as the starter for the Panthers. I’m still not sure what to make of Heintschel and Pitt since they haven’t played anyone close to the level they’ll see on Saturday from Notre Dame.
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After starting the season with losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the Fighting Irish have won seven straight. Freshman C.J. Carr has settled in at quarterback, the running attack has been strong, and the defense has improved since a shaky start to the season.
I know Pitt has an upset on their mind but the Fighting Irish are hitting their stride ahead of a possible second straight College Football Playoff appearance.
Notre Dame 34, Pitt 17
No. 11 Oklahoma v. No. 4 Alabama (-5.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
I still don’t understand the Oklahoma hype. The big wins for the Sooners are against Tennessee and Michigan, teams who likely won’t make the playoff. John Mateer is a solid quarterback, but hasn’t been quite as good as many were saying he was earlier in the season.
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Some of that could be because he rushed back from a hand injury, and some of it could be because he doesn’t have a whole lot when it comes to weapons around him.
It wasn’t pretty but Alabama still found a way to cover the spread against LSU last week. Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide will be looking for revenge after an embarrassing loss to the Sooners in Norman last year ultimately was the reason Alabama failed to make the playoff.
Oklahoma’s strength is their defense, I’m just not convinced they can put enough pressure on Ty Simpson to force him into making some bad throws. Alabama wins by at least a touchdown.
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Alabama 28, Oklahoma 20
No. 10 Texas v. No. 5 Georgia (-5.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
After some rocky moments this season, Texas still has a path to the College Football Playoff. If the Longhorns beat Georgia this week and Texas A&M in a couple weeks, it’ll be hard to keep Steve Sarkisian’s team out of the CFP. Arch Manning has been better of late, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in each of the last two games. What could be the difference is a Texas rush defense that is one of the best in the country.
Somehow this is Georgia’s last SEC conference game of the regular season, since the Bulldogs finish their schedule with Charlotte and Georgia Tech. Georgia hasn’t impressed me this season, aside from close wins against Tennessee and Ole Miss, the rest of the wins by the Bulldogs have been extremely forgettable.
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After padding his stats against lesser competition, I think Gunner Stockton is in for a bit of a rude awakening this week. Texas goes into Athens and wins a tight game.
Texas 24, Georgia 21
B1G Games
No. 18 Michigan (-12.5) v. Northwestern – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Northwestern plays hard, they just aren’t very good. Quarterback Preston Stone doesn’t strike fear in opposing defenses, while running back Caleb Komolafe is solid, but it’s hard to see him finding much room to run against a stout Wolverine rush defense.
This feels like a game where Bryce Underwood could have a bit of a breakout game. With Michigan missing running back Justice Haynes, more will be put on Underwood’s plate. Luckily the freshman quarterback had a bye week to allow him to digest more of the game plan ahead of the game at one of baseball’s most iconic stadiums.
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Much like the Buckeyes did last year, the Wolverines win by multiple scores at Wrigley Field.
Michigan 31, Northwestern 13
No. 21 Iowa v. No. 17 USC (-6.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Iowa gave it their all last week at home against Oregon and fell just short of upsetting the Ducks. Now the Hawkeyes hit the road to take on USC in what will be much nicer weather conditions. I have to imagine the loss to Oregon took a lot out of Kirk Ferentz’s team since it essentially eliminated them from playoff consideration.
We’re going to find out how tough USC really is. Over the last few years the Trojans have been pretty soft against smash-mouth teams. This year USC has shown some improvement, handling Michigan and Nebraska. The key for the Trojans is going to be jumping out on Iowa early since the Hawkeyes don’t want to have to throw the football.
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USC wins this by at least a touchdown since Iowa comes out flat after last week’s emotional loss.
USC 33, Iowa 20
UCLA v. No. 1 Ohio State (-32.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
This is a game where Ohio State should be able to name their score. The Buckeyes have the top contender for the Heisman Trophy, the best wide receiver in the country, as well the most dominant defense in the nation. UCLA doesn’t have any answers for the Buckeyes in this game. In a similar spot, the Bruins went to Bloomington last month and were smashed 56-6 by Indiana.
UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava likely is having nightmares all week about returning to Ohio State. In December, Iamaleava came to a frigid Ohio Stadium and was sacked four times and had his helmet cracked in the 42-17 loss to the Buckeyes.
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Now Iamaleava will be back in Columbus under the lights, except he doesn’t have nearly as much talent surrounding him as he did with the Volunteers. Despite totaling five touchdowns against Penn State earlier in the season, Ohio State’s defense won’t be nearly as kind to the UCLA quarterback.
The Buckeyes always play with a little more juice under the lights. Julian Sayin should have all night to throw against a UCLA pass rush that has only totaled six sacks on the season. After Carnell Tate was sidelined last week as a precaution, expect to see Sayin target Tate early and often. Even if Tate is covered, Sayin has the luxury of looking to Jeremiah Smith. The Bruins have no answers for Ohio State on either side of the football.
Ohio State 41, UCLA 7
Rapid Fire Picks
National
Clemson v. No. 20 Louisville (-2.5) – Friday 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Clemson 28, Louisville 24
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Arizona v. No. 25 Cincinnati (-6.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Cincinnati 35, Arizona 23
Florida v. No. 7 Ole Miss (-14.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Ole Miss 38, Florida 17
No. 13 Utah (-8.5) v. Baylor – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
Utah 34, Baylor 30
TCU v. No. 12 BYU (-5.5) – 10:15 p.m. ET – ESPN
BYU 31, TCU 24
B1G
Minnesota v. No. 8 Oregon (-25.5) – Friday 9:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Oregon 41, Minnesota 13
Wisconsin v. No. 2 Indiana (-29.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Indiana 33, Wisconsin 10
Penn State (-7.5) v. Michigan State – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Penn State 27, Michigan State 14
Maryland v. Illinois (-14.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1
Illinois 38, Maryland 17
Purdue v. Washington (-16.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Washington 31, Purdue 10