Winning football games takes more than talent and preparation. As much as coaches and analysts hate to admit it, luck plays a role in nearly every sport, and it’s the same in the college football landscape.
ESPN numbers guru Bill Connelly looked at each program’s luck during the 2024 season, and it turns out the Florida Gators weren’t catching many breaks. Connelly breaks things down into four categories: close games luck, general shuffling, injuries and turnover luck before naming his turnaround candidates for the 2025 campaign.
Turnover luck is the difference between a team’s expected turnover margin and actual turnover margin based on league averages. In this case, Connelly relies on 50% of fumbles being lost and 21% of passes defended becoming interceptions. Florida ranked 89th overall in the country with a -2.0 difference. The Gators’ 6.0 turnover margin is relatively high, but things should have gone better based on the numbers. It’s worth noting that two-thirds of last year’s playoff field had positive turnover luck.
Close games luck is pretty much how it sounds. How many one-score games could have gone the other way? To figure it out, Connelly compares a team’s actual wins to second-order wins, which is a post-game win expectancy evaluation tool. In other words, once the game ends, Connelly takes all the stats and determines how often a team wins the game based on what they did.
For example, the Alabama loss to Vanderbilt last season was statistically improbable. Like, 1.5% chance to win is improbable. That’s a game that Crimson Tide should have won, and Connelly points to two bounces of the ball that may have cost Alabama a playoff spot. Fortunately, Florida did fine in this category with a +0.1 win expectancy difference. The Gators only played two one-score games, and the numbers say that the Gators earned all eight of their wins without much divine intervention.
Injuries and general shuffling are treated as one category. The idea is that major injuries can be a factor when determining luck, and comparing the number of players who started all but one game or better to the number of players with just one or two starts gives an idea of how healthy a team stayed. He calls it a lineup consistency ratio. The higher the better.
Florida is at the bottom of Division I in this category. Ranked 132 out of 134 teams with a 0.40 ratio, it should be almost impossible for the Gators to play with a less consistent lineup next season. In fact, Florida finding any success in such an uncertain year is the main reason Connelly thinks the Gators are primed to be a turnaround team in 2025.
“The Gators improved from 41st to 20th in SP+ and from 5-7 to 8-5 overall despite starting three quarterbacks and 12 different DBs and ranking 132nd on the list above. That says pretty spectacular things about their overall upside, especially considering their improved experience levels on the O-line, in the secondary and the general optimism about sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway.”
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