In their first year as members of the Big Ten Conference, the Oregon Ducks announced their presence with authority.
While many questioned whether or not this flashy team from the Pacific Northwest would be able to travel and assert themselves as one of the top teams in a historic and rugged conference, the Ducks did more than just hold their own. In the regular season, they went a perfect 13-0, beating traditional powers like the Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers, and Penn State Nittany Lions on the way to winning the conference championship before all was said and done.
Not a bad introduction to your new league.
In 2025, the Ducks’ roster will look quite a bit different, but they are still expected to be among the best teams in the nation, debuting at No. 6 on ESPN’s Football Power Index ratings, which were released on Tuesday. But will they be able to repeat as Big Ten champs? According to the FPI, it may be an uphill battle for Oregon to pull off that feat for the second year in a row.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
Here’s a look at how the conference stacks up when it comes to percentage to win the conference, according to ESPN’s FPI:
No. 18 — Purdue Boilermakers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.0%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 92
Projected FPI Record: 3.2-8.8
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 18
Purdue has to feel good about bringing in Barry Odom to take over the program, but this is not a one-year rebuild situation to get back to relevance in the conference.
No. 17 — Northwestern Boilermakers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.0%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 74
Projected FPI Record: 4.1-7.9
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 17
Ryan Braun had a great first year but regressed back to the mean in 2024 with a below-average season. What will 2025 bring? ESPN doesn’t seem to think it will be anything special.
No. 16 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 55
Projected FPI Record: 5.8-6.2
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 15
Rutgers has some nice pieces and a solid coaching staff, but I don’t think anyone considers them major contenders this year.
No. 15 — Michigan State Spartans
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 59
Projected FPI Record: 5.2-6.8
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 12
We’ll see what Jonathan Smith can do in his second year with the Spartans and how much of a leap Aidan Chiles can make this season.
For more Michigan State news and analysis, check out Spartans Wire!
No. 14 — UCLA Bruins
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 47
Projected FPI Record: 5.4-6.6
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 13
Can Nico Iamaleava overcome the poor roster at UCLA and turn the Bruins into a winner? It definitely feels like a long shot.
For more UCLA news and analysis, check out UCLA Wire!
No. 13 — Maryland Terrapins
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.2%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 61
Projected FPI Record: 5.9-6.1
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 16
Will this be the year that Mike Locksley finally breaks through and builds a contender at Maryland? It certainly doesn’t seem likely.
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.3%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 43
Projected FPI Record: 6.9-5.2
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 11
P.J. Fleck has done a good job coaching at Minnesota, and they are one of the teams that could be able to surpass expectations this season if the ball bounces the right way a few times.
No. 11 — Wisconsin Badgers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.4%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 38
Projected FPI Record: 5.6-6.5
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 14
Wisconsin has the toughest schedule in the conference this year, so expecting them to make a huge leap with Billy Edwards Jr. under center is asking a lot.
For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire!
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.6%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 39
Projected FPI Record: 6.2-5.8
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 10
We know that Iowa will be a good defensive team again this year, but can they improve on offense with Mark Gronowski under center? It will be one of the more interesting storylines to follow in the conference this season.
For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire!
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.6%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 44
Projected FPI Record: 7.1-4.9
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 4
Illinois has gotten a ton of buzz as a sneaky contender in the Big Ten this year with Luke Altmyer returning for another year, but ESPN isn’t as sold on their high expectations as the media consensus.
No. 8 — Washington Huskies
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.8%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 27
Projected FPI Record: 7.1-4.9
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 9
With Jedd Fisch’s second year in Seattle and Demond Williams taking over as the starter, Washington could be a surprise team in the conference this season.
For more Washington news and analysis, check out Huskies Wire!
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.9%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 31
Projected FPI Record: 7.5-4.5
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 7
Indiana was the talk of the conference last year with Curt Cignetti taking over, and now with Fernando Mendoza replacing Kurtis Rourke under center, they could be set up for another impressive run in 2025.
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 1.5%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 25
Projected FPI Record: 7.5-4.5
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 8
How good will Dylan Raiola be this year, and what is the ceiling of Nebraska’s offense with a relative lack of talent around him? If Raiola can take an expected leap, this team might be better than many expect.
For more Nebraska news and analysis, check out Cornhuskers Wire!
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 4.2%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 19
Projected FPI Record: 8.3-3.9
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 5
USC has done a solid job building a roster on both sides of the ball this year, and while we need to see it play out on the field before crowning them contenders, Lincoln Riley certainly has a team worth watching.
For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!
No. 4 — Michigan Wolverines
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 6.0%
ESPN FPI Ranking: 17
Projected FPI Record: 8.4-3.7
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 6
ESPN seems to be high on Bryce Underwood and his ability to lead the Wolverines as a true freshman. I would like to see it for a couple of games before naming Michigan contenders to win the conference, but it’s possible.
For more Michigan news and analysis, check out Wolverines Wire!
No. 3 — Oregon Ducks
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 19.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 6
Projected FPI Record: 10.0-2.4
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 3
As the defending Big Ten Champions, it makes sense that Oregon is in the mix to win it once again this year. However, it also doesn’t come as a surprise to see them sitting behind teams like Penn State and Ohio State in the odds.
For more Oregon news and analysis, check out Ducks Wire!
No. 2 — Penn State Nittany Lions
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 25.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 6
Projected FPI Record: 10.2-2.2
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 1
Considering that most preseason rankings have Penn State at No. 1 in the nation, it was a bit surprising to see the Nittany Lions in the No. 2 spot when it comes to conference championship odds. It would be surprising not to see them in the mix, though.
For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire!
No. 1 — Ohio State Buckeyes
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 40.3%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 4
Projected FPI Record: 10.4-2.2
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 2
Putting Ohio State at the top of the odds is not surprising, considering they won the national championship a year ago. However, Julian Sayin is going to have to be special in order for this offense to get back to where they were a year ago.
For more Ohio State news and analysis, check out Buckeyes Wire!
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