The muddy College Football Playoff picture is slowly getting clearer.
Week 14 followed a chaotic Week 13 with more wackiness. No. 2 Ohio State lost 13-10 to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite while No. 6 Miami blew a 21-point lead against Syracuse for its second loss in three weeks.
As we see it, at least eight teams can feel very confident about their playoff hopes entering conference championship weekend while the other four spots can be filled by teams winning their conference title games.
Miami, meanwhile, is now the biggest CFP wild card.
Here’s a look at how we view the playoff contenders after the conclusion of the 2024 regular season.
In
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Oregon (12-0)
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Texas (11-1)
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Penn State (11-1)
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Notre Dame (11-1)
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SMU (11-1)
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Indiana (11-1)
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Ohio State (10-2)
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Tennessee (10-2)
Let’s start with the obvious: Oregon is the only undefeated team at the top level of college football and could lose by 42 to Penn State in the Big Ten title game and is still safely in the field. Penn State, meanwhile, clinched a spot in the conference championship thanks to Ohio State’s loss to Michigan.
The Buckeyes aren’t playing for the conference title but are still in the field at 10-2 as an at-large. It’s hard to see Ohio State falling past No. 8 after Saturday’s loss. The same goes for Tennessee after the Vols’ win over Vanderbilt. UT isn’t playing for a conference title next week, but at 10-2 with a win over Alabama, the Volunteers can feel very good about their chances.
Notre Dame effectively clinched its spot in the playoff with a win over USC to move to 11-1. Indiana has the same record after beating Purdue. We’re more bullish on Indiana’s chances than others simply because of the chaos that’s unfolded across college football over the past two weekends. There’s no way the committee is leaving out a one-loss power conference team given the rest of the CFB landscape.
SMU can get a top-four seed with a win over Clemson in the ACC title game and a loss shouldn’t penalize the Mustangs too much. It’s very hard to see SMU out of the playoff.
Texas survived a mistake-filled second half against Texas A&M to clinch a spot in the SEC title game against Georgia. Even if the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns again in a week, Texas should be in the postseason.
In with a win
We are pretty confident that Georgia is in the playoff no matter what happens in Atlanta in a week. But the Bulldogs are here because we still haven’t gotten a good grasp on the committee’s thinking. If it came down to a two-loss Miami and a three-loss Georgia, is the committee guaranteed to pick Georgia?
Clemson lost its third game of the season on Saturday to South Carolina. The only way the Tigers are in the playoff is if they beat SMU.
Boise State and UNLV will face off for the Mountain West title. If the Broncos win, they have a great chance at the No. 4 seed. If UNLV wins, it may be the No. 12 seed, but it’ll be in the playoff.
Arizona State clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game with a blowout win over rival Arizona. The Sun Devils will play either Iowa State or Colorado for the Big 12’s spot in the playoff. Iowa State took down Kansas State on Saturday night and is in if BYU beats Houston late Saturday night. If BYU loses, Colorado will play Arizona State for the conference title.
On the fence
If SMU beats Clemson, the Hurricanes are set up to potentially be the last team in the field. Miami could have been in the first tier with a win over Syracuse on Saturday, but the Hurricanes blew a 21-0 first-half lead in a 42-38 loss. The defeat is Miami’s second in the last three games and means they have to watch the ACC title game and every other conference title game and hope for favorable outcomes.
Living on a prayer
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Alabama (9-3)
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Ole Miss (9-3)
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South Carolina (9-3)
It’s extremely hard to see a scenario where any of the three three-loss teams from the SEC make the playoff. All three teams won to finish the regular season but their only hope is to jump to the front of this line and hope the committee drops Miami below them while SMU beats Clemson. That seems very, very unlikely. The only way we see a three-loss team making the playoff is via a conference championship.
Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers.
Winners
Michigan: How much does a win over Ohio State gloss over a disappointing season for the Wolverines? Michigan is just the second defending national champion in five decades to not win at least eight regular season games, but Wolverines fans are going to be on a high for weeks after a 13-10 win over Ohio State on Saturday. The win dropped Ohio State coach Ryan Day’s record against Michigan to 1-4 and gives Michigan coach Sherrone Moore two wins in two seasons over the Buckeyes after his stint as Michigan’s interim coach a season ago.
Baylor: What a turnaround for the Bears. Baylor was 2-4 after a 43-21 loss to Iowa State and it was worth wondering if coach Dave Aranda would return for the 2025 season. Well, Baylor ended the regular season on a six-game win streak and punctuated it with a 45-17 win over a hot Kansas team on Saturday. Sawyer Robertson was 23-of-31 passing for 310 yards and four touchdowns. Bryson Washington rushed 28 times for 192 yards and two scores while Dawson Pendergrass had 11 carries for 104 yards.
Duke: What a first season in Durham for Manny Diaz. The Blue Devils scored 20 straight points into the second half on the way to a 23-17 win over Wake Forest. Duke won the game on the final play when Maalik Murphy hit Jordan Moore for a 39-yard TD as time expired.
The Blue Devils finished the season with three consecutive wins after a 22-point loss to Miami and ended up in a four-way tie for fourth in the ACC with Syracuse, Louisville and Georgia Tech.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks are a loss against Alabama away from being a lock for the College Football Playoff. It’s been a fantastic season in Columbia as South Carolina capped a 9-3 season with a 17-14 rivalry win over Clemson on Saturday. LaNorris Sellers has made an incredible leap throughout the 2024 season and rushed for two scores on his way to 166 yards on 16 carries against the Tigers.
Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights guaranteed themselves a winning season with a 41-14 blowout win at Michigan State. The victory also denied the Spartans a bowl berth, as Rutgers reeled off 34 straight points after Michigan State took a 7-0 lead. Rutgers’ loss to Illinois in Week 13 could have been extremely demoralizing but the team instead capitalized on three turnovers on downs by the Spartans and will have a winning record in three straight seasons for the first time since George W. Bush’s second term.
Losers
North Carolina: The Tar Heels did not give Mack Brown a winning sendoff. NC State got bowl-eligible with a 35-30 win at North Carolina on Saturday as a fracas ensued on the field following the game when NC State players tried to plant a flag at midfield like Michigan attempted earlier in the day.
UNC fumbled twice and committed nine penalties as it was outscored 22-10 in the fourth quarter. The game-winning score came with 25 seconds left when Hollywood Smothers scored his second TD of the game.
North Carolina finishes the season at 6-6 and it’s unclear if Brown, who was fired this week, will coach in the bowl game.
Tulane: The Green Wave entered the final week of the season with a chance to make the College Football Playoff and the opportunity to host the AAC title game against Army. Instead, Tulane’s playoff hopes are gone and it’s going on the road to play Army on Friday thanks to a 34-24 home loss to Memphis on Thanksgiving.
Tulane turned the ball over three times — including on a Mario Williams fumble after a deep completion in the second half — and had just 15 first downs to Memphis’ 26. The Tigers rushed 46 times for 242 yards as Mario Anderson had 24 carries for 177 yards and a score. Memphis finishes the season at 10-2, but missed out on the AAC title game because both of its losses came in conference play.
UAB: It was a brutal way to end the season for the Blazers. UAB had a chance to beat Charlotte on the last play of the game, but Jonah Delange missed a 35-yard field goal as time expired. A personal foul penalty gave him another chance, however. And it made the kick eight yards shorter too. By now, you know where we’re going with this. The second kick was also no good, and Charlotte won 29-27. UAB finishes the season 3-9 and is now 7-17 in the Trent Dilfer era.
West Virginia: It’s not clear just how safe Neal Brown is at West Virginia with Jimbo Fisher looking for work and it’s hard to see how Saturday’s 52-15 loss at Texas Tech helps Brown’s cause. WVU won three of its last five games to get bowl-eligible but was dominated on Saturday. Tech had 569 yards of offense and was 9-of-12 on third downs. The Mountaineers also turned the ball over three times.