It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
With this season’s playoff expanding to 12 teams, we’ll be laying out the projected playoff field each week as the season goes on. Yeah, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until Nov. 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without CFP rankings as our guide, we’ll mostly rely on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have many more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like after Week 4.
First-round byes
1. Texas Longhorns (4-0, projected SEC champion)
Texas’ first game with Arch Manning at QB went about like you’d expect. Manning wasn’t stellar, but the Longhorns dominated Louisiana-Monroe 51-3 as 44.5-point favorites. Quinn Ewers could be sidelined again this week with his strained abdomen as Texas opens SEC play. That shouldn’t be that big of a deal. Mississippi State appears to be the worst team in the conference by a significant margin and just lost starting QB Blake Shapen to a season-ending injury. Texas should have no issue against the Bulldogs before an off week in Week 6.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Ohio State rushing offense is as good as advertised so far this season. The Buckeyes rushed for 380 yards and five TDs on just 31 attempts in a 49-14 win over Marshall. Quinshon Judkins had 14 carries for 173 yards and two scores — one was an 86-yard TD — and TreVeyon Henderson had six carries for 76 yards and two scores. The 35-point margin of victory was the smallest for Ohio State so far this season. The Buckeyes open Big Ten play Saturday night at Michigan State.
3. Miami Hurricanes (4-0, projected ACC champion)
The Miami offense looks like the real deal through the first four weeks of the season. QB Cam Ward continued his hot start to the season with 404 passing yards and three TDs in a 50-15 win over South Florida. RB Damien Martinez averaged just 2.8 carries but scored three TDs himself. Miami has a short week this week ahead of a home game against Virginia Tech on Friday night. Tech already has losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers this season. Miami needs to jump out to an early lead.
4. Utah Utes (4-0, projected Big 12 champion)
No Cameron Rising, no problem for the Utes in a 22-19 win over Oklahoma State that was not as close as the score indicated. Utah was up 22-3 in the fourth quarter before Oklahoma State scored two late TDs to force Utah to get a first down to run out the clock. Freshman QB Isaac Wilson wasn’t as good against the Cowboys as he was against Utah State, but Utah relied on a run game that heavily featured Micah Bernard. He had 25 carries for 182 yards. Big 12 play doesn’t get much easier in Week 5 with a visit from Arizona.
First-round games
No. 12 Boise State (2-1, projected MWC champion) at No. 5 Georgia (3-0, at-large)
The Broncos move into the playoff projection following Northern Illinois’ home overtime loss to Buffalo. The Broncos were off in Week 3 and had an easy win in Week 4 over a Portland State team that was healthy enough to play following a whooping cough outbreak. Boise State was our preseason favorite to represent the Group of Five in the playoff, and we’re not wavering from that confidence through the first four weeks. Georgia was off in Week 4 ahead of its big game against Alabama in Week 5 and the Bulldogs hold serve at the No. 5 spot.
No. 11 Missouri (4-0, at-large) at No. 6 Alabama (3-0, at-large)
This game will happen in the regular season in October. The Tigers visit the Crimson Tide on Oct. 26. A lot can happen between now and then, and we’re pretty sure Alabama won’t be at No. 6 in our rankings next week. The Tide will either be up at No. 5 (or higher) with a win over Georgia, or they could drop a few spots. Like Georgia, Alabama was off in Week 4. Missouri dropped two spots in the playoff projections after beating Vanderbilt 30-27 in double overtime. The Tigers are off in Week 5 before a trip to Texas A&M.
No. 10 Penn State (3-0, at-large) at No. 7 Tennessee (4-0, at-large)
Penn State and Tennessee can compare blowout wins over Kent State. The Vols destroyed Kent State 71-0 in Week 3 and Penn State beat the Golden Flashes 56-0 in Week 4. Kent State is one of the worst teams at the top level of college football, so we’re pretty confident they won’t be used as a real point of comparison between the two teams by the committee. Tennessee’s defense took center stage in Week 4 as Oklahoma got a rough welcome to life in the SEC. The Vols are off in Week 5 before heading to Arkansas.
No. 9 Oregon (3-0, at-large) at No. 8 Ole Miss (4-0, at-large)
The Ducks were off in Week 4 ahead of a trip to UCLA on Saturday. It’s going to be exceptionally weird watching two old Pac-12 teams play each other in a Big Ten game. The Rebels dropped a spot in the AP Top 25 despite a 52-13 win over Georgia Southern because of Tennessee’s impressive win. QB Jaxson Dart has 15 total TDs through the first four games of the season and is completing nearly 80% of his passes.