The prediction markets are roiling over the question of what the word “performing” means.
Via Ben Horney of Front Office Sports, a controversy has emerged over whether Cardi B actually performed during the Super Bowl LX halftime show.
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More than $47 million was wagered on the question who will “perform” at the game. Cardi B was involved in the show, but she didn’t have a microphone.
For Kalshi, the fine print became relevant. “Performing” meant singing and dancing. Simply dancing in the background didn’t count.
Polymarket applied more liberal rules, allowing “performance” to mean participation without singing.
It’s all another example of the bizarre reality of prediction markets, where inside information is fair game and there’s often room for plenty of gray in otherwise black and white predictions.
The situation remains ripe for corruption and malfeasance, with opportunities for plenty of shrewd predictors to exploit the foibles of folks who may be better off lighting their cash on fire.