6 MLB players who could become fantasy baseball stars — with one key change

The intention of this article is to find players who could have a massive fantasy baseball season if they made positive changes in one metric. That’s easier said than done. If they just do this one thing, they’ll help to win weeks or leagues. For some of these players, they might be overlooked or listed as potential fades because of one primary issue, whether it be launch angle, control, bat speed and more.

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Here’s where we dream about what would happen if these changes were to take place. With most, it’s a mixed bag of reasons for optimism and concern about these metrics being more favorable for their fantasy outcomes.

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We’ll examine three hitters and three pitchers who could be one stat away from breaking out in the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

What if Michael Harris II Increases His Launch Angle?

We could argue that we already saw a breakout season from this hitter in 2022 with $21 of earned value, but the results haven’t matched the draft prices. Michael Harris II quietly posted 16 or more home runs and 20 stolen bases in three out of the past four seasons. The runs and RBI have fluctuated based on where the Braves place him in the lineup. His contact rates were near the league average while using an aggressive approach. Harris’ 55-56% swing rate was 8-9 percentage points higher than the league norm. Meanwhile, Harris has a 40% chase rate in his career, 11-12 percentage points above the league average.

Harris’ launch angle has been an issue, given his 50.1% groundball rate throughout his career. If hitters have higher groundball rates, we want them to hit the ball in the air. He maintained a 7% barrel per plate appearance rate in 2025, similar to the career average (7.3%). Harris’s 94.2 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD) ranked 112th out of 252 qualified hitters, tying him with Adolis García and Brenton Doyle.

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Sometimes, pitch types and locations can impact launch angles, but Harris’ launch angles have been inconsistent with different pitches. The chances of Harris increasing his launch angle might be unlikely, given his track record of consistently low attack angles at 7 degrees. That aligns with Harris’ high groundball rate.

There’s a good chance Harris repeats the 20/20 season, but it’s a lofty dream to see him increase the launch angle — because it’s harder than we think.

What if Nolan Schanuel Hits the Ball Harder?

When you examine Nolan Schanuel, it’s not an exciting profile. Schanuel’s $4 of earned value over the past two seasons might be replaceable in most formats. He boasts strong plate discipline with an 86% contact rate, 9.0 percentage points above the league average. Schanuel’s plate discipline primarily supports the strong career .261 expected batting average (xBA). That’s especially true when considering Schanuel lacks power.

Schanuel reached a career-high in barrel per plate appearance rate at 3.4%. That’s not a typo. Schanuel’s barrel rate was under 3% in the previous two seasons. We’ve seen Schanuel pull the ball more over the past two seasons, around 40-41%. In the final two months, Schanuel was pulling the ball 45.9% in August and 66.7% of the time in September. Let’s see if those late-season trends stick.

Schanuel’s average exit velocity on pulled batted balls jumped to 89.6 mph (2025) from 88.2 mph in 2024 and 84.3 mph in 2023. Furthermore, Schanuel’s barrel rates increased to 6.8% (2025) and 7.8% (2024) after being at 3.8% in 2023 on pulled batted balls. He has a 81% home run to barrel rate on pulled batted balls over the past two seasons. Those pulled home runs account for 17 of Schanuel’s 25 home runs (68%) in 2024 and 2025.

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If Schanuel continues to pull the ball with better exit velocities, his power goes from below average to mediocre, which goes a long way when he compiles plate appearances.

We’re latching onto small samples of pulled batted balls for Schanuel, but there’s a hint at league-average power production, meaning 15-20 home runs in a peak season.

What if Otto Lopez Swings the Bat Faster?

Otto Lopez went from six homers in 2024 to 15 in 2025. Lopez’s barrel per plate appearance rate went from 3.9% (2024) to 5.6% (2025). It was minimal, but Lopez’s bat speed increased by one mph in 2025, with his fast swing rate increasing by eight percentage points. That indicates Lopez’s percentage of bat speed at 75 mph jumped to 22% in 2025 from 14% in 2024. Unlike Schanuel, Lopez has average bat speed and power, with the potential to be slightly above that point.

Lopez increased his flyball rate to 34.1% (2025) from 25.5% (2024) by lowering his groundball rate by 5.0 percentage points in 2025. When Lopez elevates the ball on flyballs and line drives, he has an above-average bat speed (74.2 mph) in 2025, up from 72 mph (2024). Lopez showed increased bat speed overall on pulled balls at 73.3 mph (2025) after 72 mph (2024) when we removed the filter of flyballs and line drives.

Unfortunately, Lopez’s park factor doesn’t do him any favors; the Marlins’ home park ranks 25th in home run park factors to right-handed hitters. The projections expect home run regression closer to 10-12, but Lopez showed gains in bat speed on pulled batted balls that we want to monitor in 2026.

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What if Gavin Williams Could Improve His Control?

I’ve been skeptical about Gavin Williams because of his control and lack of whiffs. When pitchers have high ball rates like Williams (38%), we want them to have dominant stuff to generate whiffs. Williams had an 11.8% swinging-strike rate in 2025, with a career average at 11.5%. That’s slightly above the league average swinging-strike rate, which hovers around 11%.

His sweeping slider led his arsenal with a 19.3% swinging-strike rate in 2025, over two percentage points higher than the career average (16.9%). That’s notable because Williams added a sweeper in 2025 instead of his traditional slider. He threw the sweeper 33% of the time to right-handed hitters, leading his arsenal. Meanwhile, Williams lowered his four-seam usage from 53.7% (2024) to 30.9% (2024). The sweeper was thrown two mph slower than the slider while adding downward movement (+9 inches) and horizontal sweep (+7.3 inches).

Besides the increased sweeper whiffs, it allowed weak contact, evidenced by a .191 wOBA (.210 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in 2025. There might have been a concerted effort to improve his stuff instead of focusing on his pitch command. That’s somewhat evident by Williams’s career-best 103 Stuff+ and a career-low 95 Location+.

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Ideally, Williams shows a slight improvement in his ball rate and control, or we see another uptick in stuff and whiffs in 2026. The chances of Williams showing gains in stuff and whiffs might be more likely than better control.

What if Jacob Misiorowski Had Better Control and Command?

Unlike Williams, Brewers top prospect Jacob Misiorowski possesses the near-elite stuff and whiffs while having control and command issues. This is where our previous advanced stats piece needs to be reviewed. Pitchers can show control via the walks and ball rate, but we prefer ball percentage because walk rates can be noisy. Misiorowski’s 11% walk rate and 34% ball rate in 2025 provide evidence.

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Typically, pitchers with a 34% ball rate have walk rates around 6-7% (insert 6, 7 joke). There’s a chance Misiorowski’s control issues might be irrelevant in his MLB sample. At Triple-A in 2025, Misiorowski had a 36.3% ball rate with a 40.9% ball rate in the minors in 2024. Misiorowski’s ball rate might be somewhere in between the 2025 sample in the majors and minors, with 2024 providing some concern.

Thankfully, Misiorowski boasts above-average swinging-strike rates. That’s evident by his 13% swinging-strike rate and 119 Stuff+ in the 2025 MLB sample across 66 innings. Misiorowski’s 18.8% changeup swinging-strike rate was over three points above the league norm (15.5%). Besides the slider, Misiorowski’s four-seam was electric, generating a 13.8% swinging-strike rate, three points higher than the league average. When pitchers like Misiorowski throw a 99.3 mph four-seamer coming from a low arm slot (30 degrees) and elite extension (7.6 feet, 100th percentile), it’s scary to face.

Misiorowski’s stuff has never been questioned. However, there’s a chance the walk rate improves based on the ball rates. Surprisingly, Misiorowski had a 104 Location+ (104) in the MLB sample. Besides some volatility in this profile, Misiorowski’s health and volume might be a concern after 97.1 innings in the minors in 2024 and over 129 in 2025 across Triple-A and MLB. Fantasy managers can build around Misiorowski’s skillset and risk at the middle round draft price.

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What if Jack Leiter Improves his Command?

After a first glance, Jack Leiter’s advanced stats with a 12.5% K-BB% and 10.6% swinging-strike rate don’t wow us. Leiter’s slider (12.9%) and changeup (13%) led his arsenal from a swinging-strike rate standpoint. However, he excites us when we dive deeper into his 6.9 feet of extension (89th percentile), above-average induced vertical break (17.4 inches) on the four-seamer, and an arsenal that can perform well against either side of the plate.

Leiter threw a new changeup in 2025, which dropped four inches more while maintaining the 14-15 inches of arm side fade. However, it’s worth noting that Leiter’s changeup sample was small in 2024. He throws a gyro-like slider, which can be effective to right-handed hitters when he locates it low and away. Furthermore, Leiter’s four-seam (114 Stuff+), slider (102 Stuff+) and changeup (108 Stuff+) grade well from a Stuff+ standpoint. The issue for Leiter has been the command with a 91 Location+, with below-average locations on all pitches.

I love leaning into the variance of a pitcher with good stuff, yet might struggle with command. That’s especially true with Leiter’s discounted price in drafts as a starting pitcher sleeper.