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GIFT Nifty surges 320 points after US Supreme Court invalidated Trump tariffs. Indian equities may open gap-up on Monday, but volatility expected amid new US tariff and F&O expiry.
Nifty Prediction For Monday, February 23.
Nifty Prediction For Monday, February 23: After the US Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, Indian markets reacted positively, with the GIFT Nifty (Nifty futures) surging 320 points to 25,886, signalling a significant gap-up opening for domestic equities on February 23.
Following the SC ruling that struck down broad “reciprocal” tariffs under IEEPA, Trump signed an executive order imposing a fresh 10% global tariff on imports from all countries, effective February 24, 2026, under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
Analysts say this 10% tariff is less severe than previously proposed actions and leaves scope for continued negotiations.
“For India, this effectively resets the interim US-India trade arrangement, limiting tariff exposure to 10% for now. While this introduces short-term uncertainty for Indian exporters in sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, gems, and machinery, the measure is considered less severe than previously proposed actions and leaves scope for continued negotiations,” Ponmudi R, chief executive officer of Enrich Money, a Sebi-registered online trading and wealth tech firm.
The US and India finalised an interim trade pact, under which Washington reduced its ‘reciprocal tariff’ rate to 18 per cent from the previous high of 50 per cent. In return, New Delhi agreed to eliminate tariffs on American goods.
Nifty Prediction For Monday, February 23
“Firm trends in GIFT Nifty also suggest Indian equities are poised for a gap-up opening on Monday,” said Ponmudi.
He, however, added that President Trump’s remarks about potentially invoking alternative legal routes to advance his tariff policy inject a layer of policy uncertainty. This could temper optimism and trigger intermittent phases of elevated volatility across global financial markets in the near term.
Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president (research) of Religare Broking, said, “On the upside, the 25,800-26,000 zone remains a key resistance band. A sustained move above 26,000 would be required to revive bullish momentum.”
Markets ended the week with modest gains, supported by value buying in fundamentally strong stocks that had recently corrected, despite mixed global cues. Sentiment remained positive during the first three sessions; however, heightened volatility in the final sessions turned participants cautious. Ultimately, the benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex settled at 25,571.25 and 61,172, respectively.
Key Events To Watch Next Week
Markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming week, particularly with the monthly F&O expiry scheduled for February 24, Mishra said.
On the domestic front, key data releases include GDP figures, Government Budget Value, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Infrastructure Output (YoY).
“Globally, investors will assess the implications of the verdict announced by the Supreme Court of the United States on tariffs on Friday, February 20. Any policy recalibration or legal interpretation affecting trade measures could have cross-border ramifications. Additionally, markets will monitor developments following a fresh executive order by the President of the United States, which may influence trade dynamics, tariff structures, and global risk sentiment. Clarity on the proposed India-US interim trade agreement, with Indian officials visiting the US to finalise the legal framework, will also remain in focus,” Mishra said.
Technical View
The Nifty has rebounded from the 25,400-25,500 zone, closing with improving sentiment and reduced downside pressure while forming a base above key moving averages (50 EMA around 25,721 and 100 EMA near 25,655). EMA stands for exponential moving average, which is considered key resistance and support.
“The index continues to hold within its long-term rising channel, suggesting that the recent dip was corrective in nature. Immediate support is placed at 25,500–25,600, aligned with recent lows and the channel base; a decisive break below this region could expose 25,300–25,000, coinciding with the 200 EMA near 25,303,” Ponmudi said.
He added that momentum indicators are showing early signs of recovery, while upside resistance stands at 25,700-25,900. A sustained move above 26,000-26,100 could trigger renewed buying momentum and restore a stronger upward bias. Derivative positioning indicates a broadly range-bound setup with a mild positive tilt, as strong put writing near 25,500 provides support, while call supply at higher strikes limits aggressive upside expansion.
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