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Indian equities face a volatile week as Israel Iran US tensions drive up crude prices. Nifty 50 and Sensex fell, with bearish momentum and cautious outlook amid macro risks.
Nifty Prediction For Monday, March 2.
Nifty Prediction For Monday, March 2: Indian equities are bracing for a weak start on Monday, March 2, after a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A direct military confrontation involving Israel, Iran and the United States has triggered a global risk-off wave, raising concerns around crude oil prices and equity markets worldwide.
For India, which imports over 80% of its crude requirement, elevated oil prices pose immediate macro risks, widening the current account deficit, stoking inflationary pressures and complicating the RBI’s rate trajectory.
Against this backdrop, Dalal Street had already ended the week on a weak note, and the geopolitical shock could set the stage for a gap-down opening in benchmark indices.
Iran-Israel War: Global Crosscurrents Add To Volatility
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said global macro and geopolitical developments had already weakened sentiment even before the latest military escalation.
The Nifty 50 closed the week at 25,178.65, down 1.54%, while the Sensex ended at 81,287, losing 1.84%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty and sector-specific disruptions.
“Indian equity markets navigated a volatile corrective phase in the week ended February 27, 2026, as global crosscurrents and domestic pressures weighed on sentiment. Early weakness stemmed from concerns over AI-led disruption to the IT outsourcing model, a slide in the U.S. Nasdaq, and fading hopes of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts after mixed economic data. Trade and geopolitical developments reinforced the cautious tone. President Trump’s 10–15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, effective February 24, injected fresh uncertainty for export-driven sectors including textiles, pharmaceuticals, gems and machinery, though the impact appears more contained than initially feared,” Ponmudi said.
Meanwhile, rising US-Iran tensions have kept crude oil prices firm amid concerns over potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. For India, a major oil importer, elevated energy prices add another macroeconomic strain to an already fragile risk backdrop, he added.
Ravi Singh, chief research officer from Master Capital Services, said, “The Nifty 50 ended the week on a shaky note, slumping 1.54% this week after a sharp Friday sell-off. Technically, the index has breached its critical 25,300 support and the 200-day EMA, signalling a bearish shift in short-term momentum.”
Week Ahead: Geopolitics, Crude And Data In Focus
Ponmudi added that volatility is likely to remain elevated. “The week ahead is likely to be marked by elevated volatility, as mounting tensions in the Middle East, raising the spectre of a direct confrontation between the US and Iran, coincide with a heavy slate of macroeconomic data releases in both the US and India.”
He noted that US jobs data, domestic PMI readings, industrial production figures and monthly auto sales will be key triggers for sentiment.
Technical View On Nifty & Bank Nifty
On the technical front, he said, “The Nifty 50 has slipped below its key short-term moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), confirming emerging weakness after a failed rebound. A bearish formation on the weekly chart signals distribution at higher levels. Immediate support lies at 25,100-25,000; a break below this zone could expose 24,900-24,700 near the long-term trendline. On the upside, 25,350-25,500 now acts as immediate resistance, and a sustained move above this band is needed for stabilization. RSI around 46 and a negative MACD indicate mild bearish momentum. Overall bias remains negative to range-bound, with consolidation possible near support.”
For Bank Nifty, he added, “Bank Nifty closed at 60,529, retreating from recent highs and forming a short-term double-top pattern, suggesting profit booking. Immediate support is placed at 60,300-59,900; a breakdown could extend losses toward 59,700-59,500. Resistance is seen at 60,800-61,000, with a sustained reclaim required to revive upward momentum toward 61,400-61,500. RSI near 52 reflects neutral but weakening momentum. The bias remains mildly negative unless support levels hold firmly.”
What To Expect On March 2
Though the GIFT Nifty, Nifty Futures, closed 90 points higher on Friday evening, analysts expect volatility in the markets.
With global markets likely to react sharply to the Israel-Iran escalation and crude oil remaining firm, Indian equities appear poised for a gap-down opening on Monday.
The immediate focus for traders will be whether Nifty holds the crucial 25,000 level. A sustained breach could trigger further downside, while any intraday rebound toward 25,350-25,500 may see fresh selling pressure.
In the current environment, the dominant strategy, as echoed by both experts, remains cautious positioning with a ‘sell on rise’ bias until key resistance levels are decisively reclaimed.
Iran-Israel War
Dubai, Feb 28 (AP) The US and Israel launched a major attack on targets across Iran on Saturday, and US President Donald Trump called on the Iranian people to “take over your government” — an extraordinary appeal that suggested the allies could be seeking to end of the country’s theocracy after decades of tensions.
The first strikes of the attack appeared to target the compound home to Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in downtown Tehran. It wasn’t immediately clear if he was there at the time. Smoke could be seen rising from the Iranian capital.
“For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted Death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops and the innocent people in many, many countries,” Trump said in a video posted on social media that sought to justify the attacks. He urged Iranians to take cover during the strikes, but then: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” The attack quickly expanded beyond Iran. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard said it responded by launching a “first wave” of drones and missiles targeting Israel, where a nationwide warning was issued as the military said it bring down Iranian fire.
Meanwhile, Bahrain said that a missile attack targeted the US Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in the island kingdom. Witnesses heard sirens and explosions in Kuwait, home to US Army Central. Explosions could be also be heard in Qatar.
Iraq and the United Arab Emirates closed their airspace, and sirens sounded in Jordan.
The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, meanwhile, vowed to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping routes and on Israel, according to two senior Houthi officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because there was no official announcement from the Houthi leadership.
(With inputs from agencies)
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February 28, 2026, 15:43 IST
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