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HSBC’s Think Future 2026 report highlights gold’s resilience, record highs, and strong demand from central banks and ETFs.
2025 is so far the best year for gold after 1979
Gold’s shine continues to be bright in the near future as the inflow is expected to stay intact due to demands from central banks and ETFs, according to HSBC’s Think Future 2026 report. The report said gold “offers resilience during periods of significant turbulence and holds potential for further appreciation.”
Gold is experiencing one of its most successful years, with a remarkable year-to-date performance of approximately 54%. “This exceptional growth is primarily attributable to rising global uncertainty and concerns about USD debasement,” the HSBC report said.
In October, gold reached an all-time high of approximately USD 4,380/oz. It subsequently fell to around USD 3,885/oz within two weeks, as retail investors capitalised on the elevated valuation by taking profits.
The report said that following a period of consolidation around USD 4,000/oz, gold appears to have resumed its upward trend, driven by speculation that upcoming economic data – delayed by the US shutdown – may support another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.
There will be further consolidation in the short term. “Subsequently, the uptrend could gradually resume, with prices maintaining a slow upward trajectory,” it added.
The HSBC report added that gold will continue to benefit from strong central bank demand, ongoing concerns over a weaker US dollar, and sustained interest in gold-backed ETFs.
Since 2022, the proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has grown significantly. Gold constituted about 13% of these reserves in 2022, rising to approximately 22% by Q2 2025. During this time, gold prices have risen by roughly 125%, from USD 2,000/oz to over USD 4,000/oz.
(Source: HSBC Think Future 2026 report)
The rise in gold reserves held by central banks is a key structural factor supporting gold prices, says the report. “. Consequently, their consistent and stable purchases are expected to establish a price floor, keeping gold at elevated levels,” it added.
On the retail front, demand from investors is pivotal in shaping the gold outlook, especially in the short term, the report added. Since mid-2024, the demand for gold-backed ETFs – as a way to invest in gold without purchasing the metal – has consistently trended positively.
The same factors driving central banks to increase their gold reserves have influenced retail investors, significantly boosting interest in investing in gold.
Varun Yadav is a Sub Editor at News18 Business Digital. He writes articles on markets, personal finance, technology, and more. He completed his post-graduation diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Inst…Read More
Varun Yadav is a Sub Editor at News18 Business Digital. He writes articles on markets, personal finance, technology, and more. He completed his post-graduation diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Inst… Read More
November 24, 2025, 13:54 IST
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