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A CNBC-TV18 poll, calculated using the old base year, pegs real GDP growth at 7.6% for Q3 FY26.
Q3 FY26 GDP Data Today.
Q3 GDP Data With New Series To Be Released Today, February 27: India’s economic growth data for the third quarter of FY26 will be released today at 4 pm, alongside a new GDP series that shifts the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. The update could change not just the latest growth number but also past estimates.
Poll Signals 7.6% Growth
A CNBC-TV18 poll, calculated using the old base year, pegs real GDP growth at 7.6% for Q3 FY26. That would be lower than the previous quarter’s 8.1% but still strong. Nominal GDP growth is estimated at 7.85%, unusually close to real growth because inflation during the quarter was very low at about 0.8%.
For the full year, the poll projects real GDP growth at 7.6%, slightly above the government’s First Advance Estimate of 7.4%. Nominal growth is expected at 8.4%, below the double-digit level policymakers usually prefer for stronger tax revenues and corporate earnings.
Forecasts Diverge Ahead Of Release
SBI Research expects stronger growth. It said, “Despite global headwinds, the Indian economy has maintained strong growth momentum.” The report estimates Q3 FY26 growth “closer to 8.1%”, citing resilient high-frequency indicators, rural demand support and improving urban consumption.
It also warned, “given significant methodological changes, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision”.
In contrast, ICRA forecasts growth slowing to 7.2% year-on-year from 8.2% in Q2. Aditi Nayar said, “An estimation of GDP growth as per the new base year is challenging at present… we project the GDP growth to have eased to 7.2% in Q3 2025-26 from 8.0% in the first half of the fiscal.” She cited base effects, lower government capex, weak exports and softer state spending.
CareEdge shares a similar view. It expects GDP growth at 7.2% and GVA growth at 7%, both lower than the previous quarter.
What Changes With The New Base Year
The new series aims to better reflect India’s current economic structure. It will use expanded datasets such as GST filings, vehicle registration records and natural gas consumption. It will also improve measurement of the informal sector and capture the rising share of digital services and commerce.
Officials said the revision was delayed due to structural shifts including GST implementation and the pandemic. MoSPI secretary Saurabh Garg said, “We would have had this revision earlier, but there were some important economic changes that happened in the country. First GST got introduced, and then Covid intervened.” He added, “we hope to do it every five years or so”.
Why Today’s Release Matters
The new series will revise historical GDP numbers for FY24, FY25 and FY26. If earlier years’ GDP levels are adjusted, growth rates for later years may also change. Economists say the release could reset India’s growth narrative and alter comparisons used by policymakers and investors.
The update also comes after the IMF in November flagged methodological gaps in India’s national accounts and assigned a ‘C’ rating, indicating scope for improvement.
Today’s Q3 data will deliver both the latest growth number and a recalibrated statistical base. Markets will watch closely not just the headline Q3 figure but also revisions to past data that could reshape the country’s growth trajectory.
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February 27, 2026, 09:48 IST
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