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India’s Q4 GDP Growth: Q4 GDP growth beats estimates and rises significantly higher than Q3, while the full FY25 economic growth remains the lowest in 4 years.
For Q4 FY25, analysts had estimated India’s economic growth in the range of 6.4 per cent to 7 per cent.
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a four-quarter high of 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter ended March 2025, beating estimates, according to the latest official data released on May 30. However, for the full financial year 2024-25, the country’s economic growth stood at 6.5 per cent, which is a 4-year low.
In the previous quarter ended December 2024 (Q3 FY25), India’s GDP growth had stood at 6.2 per cent. It had stood at 7.8 per cent in Q4 FY24. In the previous full FY2023-24, it had stood at 8.2 per cent, which was later revised upward to 9.2 per cent.
Though the FY25 GDP growth is the lowest since FY21 (the COVID-19 year when the economic growth had hit -5.8 per cent), it is in line with the government’s growth estimate of 6.5 per cent in the second advance estimates (SAE).
It is also higher than the 6.3 per cent growth estimated by most analysts for FY25.
With 6.5 per cent FY25 growth, India continues to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expects India’s economic size to surpass Japan’s by the end of the year, reaching $4.18 trillion.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said India sustains growth momentum as fastest-growing economy for fourth year in a row.
The Q4 GDP growth rate of 7.4 per cent remained the highest during the financial year 2024-25. The Indian economy in June, September and December quarters grew at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively.
For Q4 FY25, analysts had estimated India’s economic growth in the range of 6.4 per cent to 7 per cent.
Q4FY25 GDP, GVA, Sector-Wise Growth Rates
“Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q4 of FY 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 51.35 lakh crore, against Rs 47.82 lakh crore in Q4 of FY 2023-24, registering a growth rate of 7.4%,” according to an official statement.
Nominal GDP, which factors in inflation, in Q4 FY25 grows 10.8 per cent in FY25.
According to the latest data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s real gross value added or GVA, which is GDP minus net product taxes and reflects growth in supply, grew 6.8 per cent year-on-year during January-March 2025 (Q4 FY25).
Analysts have said India’s growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year, compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production.
The agriculture sector grew 5 per cent during the latest March 2025 quarter, compared with 0.9 per cent a year ago.
During Q4 of FY 2024-25, the ‘construction’ sector has witnessed 10.8 per cent growth rate.
The manufacturing sector slowed to 4.8 per cent in Q4, against the 11.3 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter last year.
The country’s trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting sector also slowed to 6.0 per cent, compared with 6.2 per cent a year ago.
Full FY25 Economic Growth
“Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of Rs 187.97 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the FY 2023-24 of Rs 176.51 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 6.5%,” according to the statement.
GDP in nominal terms, which factors in inflation, grows 9.8 per cent in FY25.
Nominal GDP in Q4 FY25 grows 10.8 per cent in FY25.
Real GVA grew 6.4 per cent in the financial year 2024-25.
The agriculture sector rose to 4.6 per cent during the full FY 2024-25, compared with 2.7 per cent a year ago.
The manufacturing sector slowed to 4.5 per cent in FY25, against the 12.3 per cent recorded in the previous year.
The country’s trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting sector also slowed to 6.1 per cent, compared with 7.5 per cent a year ago.
India’s GDP Growth Rates Of Last 6 Years
FY2020: 3.9%
FY2021: -5.8%
FY2022: 9.7%
FY2023: 7.6%
FY2024: 9.2%
FY2025: 6.5% (provisional).
‘FY26 Outlook Looks Resilient’
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said, “While FY2026 has begun with heightened uncertainty around global trade policies, the outlook for domestic drivers of growth, including private consumption and government investment appears largely resilient, given the personal income tax relief, monetary easing, expectations of an above normal monsoon and lower food inflation, and the healthy growth in budgeted capex of the GoI and state governments.”
The outlook for merchandise and IT exports, and private capex, especially in export-oriented sectors, appears muted, although the relative tariff scenario will evolve as the year progresses. At present, ICRA forecasts GDP growth to dip slightly to 6.2% in FY2026 from 6.5% in FY2025, she added.
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to markets, economy and companies. Having a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris has been previously asso…Read More
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to markets, economy and companies. Having a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris has been previously asso… Read More
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