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India’s Q4 FY25 GDP data: Estimates suggest growth between 6.4% and 7%, with SBI at 6.4-6.5%, Icra at 6.9%, CareEdge at 6.8%, and ICICI Bank and Union Bank at 7%.
India’s growth momentum picked up in the second half of the financial year compared with the first half, as per estimates.
Q4 GDP Growth Data: India’s Q4FY25 GDP data is scheduled to be released on Friday at 4 pm. According to estimates, the country’s economic growth is expected to have increased during the quarter amid better agriculture growth, and may remain in the range of 6.4 per cent to 7 per cent.
In its latest estimates, SBI pegged India’s Q4FY25 GDP growth in the range of 6.4-6.5 per cent. Icra expects it to grow 6.9 per cent, CareEdge sees it at 6.8 per cent, and both ICICI Bank and Union Bank of India peg the March 2025 quarter growth at 7 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects the country’s economy to grow at 6.6 per cent in Q4 FY25.
In the previous quarter ended December 2024 (Q3 FY25), India’s GDP growth had stood at 6.2 per cent.
“India’s growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production. Construction activity has also remained steady,” ICICI Bank said in its report.
Urban demand has been weak so far, though it is expected to improve gradually, especially with the potential implementation of the new Pay Commission, it added.
ICICI Bank expects gross value added (GVA) growth for Q4FY25 at 6.4 per cent. The difference between GVA and GDP is due to higher net taxes.
Economists at Citi wrote “resilient (agricultural) activity continues to bode well for rural consumption,” adding that they “remain bearish on urban consumption” in the first half of the current fiscal year, with a recovery driven by policy stimulus.
The RBI is expected to cut interest rates for a third consecutive meeting on June 6.
However, economists cautioned that erratic US trade policy since the start of the year presents a shaky backdrop for future growth prospects.
ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty.
A separate Reuters poll taken last month found U.S. tariffs had negatively hit business sentiment, which bodes poorly for a long-expected pickup in corporate spending.
Full-Year GDP Growth Estimates
For the full financial year 2024-25, most estimates peg the country’s GDP growth at 6.3 per cent.
This is slightly lower than the government’s current estimate of 6.5 per cent in the second advance estimates (SAE).
In FY25, the Indian economy in June, September and December quarters grew at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively.
In the year-ago quarter (March 2024) or Q4 FY24, the GDP growth had stood at 7.8 per cent.
India Surpasses Japan To Become 4th Largest Economy
Meanwhile, India has surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth largest economy according to IMF data, as announced by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam.
Following the 10th Governing Council meeting of NITI Aayog, Mr. Subrahmanyam informed reporters that the current geopolitical and economic climate is favorable for India. “As of now, we are the fourth largest economy and a $4 trillion economy,” he stated.
According to the IMF, India’s GDP is currently $4.187 trillion, overtaking Japan’s $4.186 trillion.
Citing IMF data, Subrahmanyam said India today is larger than Japan.
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