India Holds Upper Hand, Trump On Backfoot – What Big Move Could Come Next?

New Delhi: India has flipped the script in trade negotiations with the United States. Despite Washington imposing tariffs as high as 50% on Indian goods, India’s resilient domestic economy and smaller-than-expected export decline have strengthened its position. Reuters reports that India now aims to negotiate a reduction in these tariffs, keeping an eye on possible major concessions from US President Donald Trump.

In October, India’s exports to the United States fell 8.6% from last year, totalling $6.3 billion. The decline was smaller than September’s 12% drop, though both months reflected the 50% tariff impact. The relatively modest fall has empowered Indian negotiators to present a stronger case.

A senior government official indicated that India has avoided the worst effects of the 50% US tariffs. Textile orders have dropped, but the overall economy remains resilient. This allows India to maintain a balanced approach in ongoing discussions.

Even as countries like Japan and South Korea signed tariff agreements with the United States, India has avoided rushing into any deal. Officials involved in talks suggest that the United States may eventually lower its 25% tariff linked to Russian oil, potentially reducing it to 15%.

India, in return, could agree to cut tariffs on over 80% of goods while protecting sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Exporters have adapted to the situation. Companies have increased shipments to Africa and Europe and extended delivery timelines and discounts to retain US customers. The Federation of Indian Export Organisations highlighted that apparel and footwear businesses are bearing up to 20% of additional costs.

Trade figures from April to October 2025 confirm these trends. The United States remains India’s largest export destination, with shipments totalling $52.12 billion. Strong demand continues for engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, electronics and gems and jewellery.

The UAE, Netherlands and China follow, with exports of $22.14 billion, $11.98 billion and $10.03 billion respectively. China remains India’s largest import source, reflecting India’s continuing reliance on critical global supply chains.

India’s firm stance and strategic maneuvering have turned the tariff challenge into a negotiation advantage. The next move in this high-stakes trade game could transform global commerce.