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Ali Khamenei’s killing in missile strikes has escalated US and Israel-Iran tensions, threatening the Strait of Hormuz and risking a surge in crude oil prices impacting India.
According to Kpler, India’s reliance on crude oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz has gone up in recent months.
The US & Israel-Iran conflict has snowballed into a deeper geopolitical crisis, after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in missile strikes. The Iranian media has confirmed the killing of the Supreme Leader and informed that the Iranian government has announced 40 days of mourning.
Once the tension between the US and Iran escalated, global attention has now shifted towards the narrow but quintessential water passage – the Strait of Hormuz.
This narrow stretch of water has played a pivotal role in powering the world’s economy, and is a major route of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman, the UAE and Iran, is one of the world’s most strategically vital shipping routes. More than 20-30 per cent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through the narrow waterway, making any disruption a matter of global economic concern.
Impact On India
Being highly dependent on global crude oil, any untoward event in the geopolitical dimension will have a huge impact on India, especially for petrol and diesel prices.
The escalation of tension between Iran-US following the killing of Khamenei may shoot up crude oil prices over $100 per barrel. If this happens, it will be a major financial burden for India, which depends on the global crude for its domestic requirements.
Kpler, a global data and analytics company, said India’s renewed dependence on Middle Eastern crude has heightened its immediate vulnerability to risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
“If tensions rise, the impact will likely be felt first through a spike in crude prices, followed by higher shipping and insurance costs. A full-scale supply disruption cannot be ruled out, but at this stage, the probability of any significant production cut or supply shock remains low,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling at Kpler.
According to Kpler, India’s reliance on crude oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz has gone up in recent months.
Vessel-tracking data from the firm shows that nearly 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) of India’s crude imports move through the Strait of Hormuz — roughly half of the country’s total crude imports. A large share of these supplies comes from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.
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March 01, 2026, 11:31 IST
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