ISLAMABAD:
It is becoming clear that the Trump administration will not achieve the perceived objectives of the tariff war to contain or damage the Chinese economy; rather, tariffs are proving counterproductive. The farming community has already started to agitate. Last time, President Trump paid $28 billion to compensate farmers for their losses due to the trade war, but the situation is different this time.
The manufacturing sector also depicts a grim picture. There is no short- or medium-term solution to build manufacturing capacity; instead, the trade war has severely impacted well-established industries. The decline in the service sector further aggravates the situation.
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy showed strong performance in the first quarter (5.4% growth), boosting national confidence. China has accelerated efforts to strengthen relations with other partner countries; President Xi’s visit to Asean was part of this policy. Thus, China is expected to be in a better position to withstand the trade war. It is predicted that President Trump will have to revisit his decision soon.
However, anti-China rhetoric and policies will not stop. Why? Because the US blames China for its declining power and problems. Experts believe the US will intensify anti-China rhetoric and policies, launching a three-pronged strategy: internal interference, attacking Chinese ideology, and sabotaging Chinese investments, partners, or friendly countries.
First, internal interference will accelerate under the banner of human rights, democracy, liberties, etc. A multifaceted propaganda campaign to malign China would be the starting point. The US will portray a bleak picture of human rights in China, especially concerning Muslims. Xinjiang will be a prime target. Baseless propaganda will re-emerge to incite terrorists against China and destabilise the region.
Thus, China must prepare for propaganda by presenting an accurate depiction of Xinjiang and its Muslim population. China does not need to fabricate facts, as it has significantly invested in Xinjiang’s economic and social development. The CPC’s dedication is transforming Xinjiang’s fate through investments in the economy, human development, and social sectors. China just needs to highlight and showcase this to the world.
For example, in 2024, 40 state-owned entities (SOEs) invested $39.1 billion in Xinjiang across various sectors, including petroleum, natural gas, coal, new energy, and transportation. The agriculture sector thrived, boosting grain production to 23.3 million tonnes. Xinjiang accounted for 92.3% of the nation’s total cotton production, with the cotton and textile industry generating $33.6 billion and providing 1 million jobs in 2024.
Agriculture’s success is attributed to CPC leadership, investment in modernisation, and a strong focus on farmers, helping them build and renovate homes. Tourism also contributed significantly, with estimates suggesting it added $50.1 billion to regional GDP.
Xinjiang’s GDP surpassed 2 trillion yuan, achieving a growth rate of 6.6%. Official statistics indicate Xinjiang took 42 years to reach the 100-billion-yuan mark, 20 more to hit 1 trillion yuan, and just seven additional years to exceed 2 trillion yuan ($280 billion). SOEs plan to invest another $53.1 billion by 2025, further boosting GDP.
Second, it is anticipated that socialism with Chinese characteristics will become a major target. The US will work to undermine this ideology domestically and globally. Domestically, the youth will be lured with appeals to liberties, freedom of speech, democracy, and similar concepts, as witnessed during the Hong Kong riots. Globally, China will be depicted as authoritarian, closed, and anti-environmental.
Unfortunately, the ideological field remains open for opponents, especially globally. Due to China’s non-interference policy, limited efforts were made to introduce and mainstream Chinese economic, social, and cultural ideologies. For instance, Socialism with Chinese characteristics has ingredients that can help restore peace and sustainable development in a troubled world. Whole-Process People’s Democracy and people-centric governance offer solutions to governance challenges, promote cohesiveness, and encourage coexistence.
Despite such advantages, little knowledge is available about these concepts, leaving space for competing ideologies to consolidate dominance. This will present new challenges in the post-trade war era, where the US will enhance efforts to target Chinese ideology.
Thus, China needs to focus more on global ideological outreach. It is encouraging that, domestically, progress has been made, especially during President Xi’s era, to promote and enhance understanding of socialism with Chinese characteristics. However, globally, much remains to be done.
Third, it is feared that Chinese investments and relationships with friendly countries, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), will be targeted. As the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and based in an old, trusted partner country, CPEC is a prime target. Ground realities already indicate pressure: the US and other countries have deployed multiple tools to punish Pakistan, such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) placing Pakistan on the grey list, stifling investment and trade opportunities, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) weaving a debt and policy trap.
Opponents also instigated terrorism against Pakistan, targeting CPEC and Balochistan – the hub of connectivity and home to Gwadar Port, Gwadar International Airport, and the Free Economic Zone. They have forged alliances with terrorist organisations to conduct attacks.
It is feared that, post-trade war, the US will intensify efforts to undermine CPEC, tapping India to promote and support terrorism in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan. By sabotaging CPEC, they seek to achieve three objectives: spoil Chinese investment, hinder Pakistani development, and drive a wedge between China and Pakistan.
Thus, Pakistan and China must build mechanisms to counter these new challenges. The best way would be to establish joint security frameworks and enhance investment in CPEC. Investment is key because opponents have already propagated the narrative that China ties CPEC investment solely to security. To counter this, China and Pakistan must fast-track investments. Otherwise, the risk remains that opponents will use this notion to cultivate anti-China sentiment in Pakistan.
THE WRITER IS A POLITICAL ECONOMIST AND A VISITING RESEARCH FELLOW AT HEBEI UNIVERSITY, CHINA