Illinois is having its best regular season since 2021, when the Illini finished 16-4 in conference play and earned a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday. That team ended the regular season at 20-6 (fewer games due to the COVID season) while the 2023-24 Elite Eight team finished 23–8 and with a three seed.
The Illini are now 21-5 and have a chance to secure their best NCAA Tournament seed since the 2021 season. A No. 2 seed remains the projection following their home blowout win against Indiana, according to Bracket Matrix and my own bracketology, which is included in the Matrix (Lock Mamba Bracketology).
Bart Torvik compares teams’ resumes and efficiency numbers to prior teams throughout college basketball history. It’s a fun tool to evaluate where Illinois ranks historically and gives fans more insight into the potential of this team.
Only two of the 10 most comparable teams to the Illini lost before the second weekend, and three made the Final Four. Mixed in are numerous Sweet 16 and Elite Eight teams. The most recent comparable team to Illinois is last year’s Texas Tech squad that made the Elite Eight.
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Can the Illini make another Elite Eight? A Final Four?
Illinois’ defense, ranked outside the top 20 nationally, has worried some fans. However, that Texas Tech team had a worse adjusted defensive efficiency rating than the Illini currently have. Illinois owns an offensive rating of 132 and a defensive rating of 97.3.
The KenPom and Bart Torvik analytical efficiency metrics indicate that the Illini have a strong chance to reach another second weekend and possibly their first Final Four since 2005. Illinois has the No. 1 ranked adjusted offensive efficiency on both KenPom and Bart Torvik.
Each of the last eight national champions ranked in the top six in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 71% of title winners have ranked inside the top six since the data became available at KenPom in 2001.
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A high-level offense clearly matters when making a deep March Madness run, and the Illini currently have the highest offensive rating in the history of the sport. Their ability to create mismatches and score in multiple ways should translate well to tournament play.
Brad Underwood and the Illini staff emphasized recruiting offense in the offseason, and that focus has translated into elite offensive performances throughout most of the season.
Will that elite offense be enough to send Illinois back to the Elite Eight for the second time in three years?