Dan Lanning has had a very good three first four seasons at Oregon. His Ducks have lost only 7 games in those four years and have never lost to an unranked team. That’s really impressive.
But today, as we set the table for USC-Oregon this Saturday, let’s dive deeper into Lanning’s seven losses. See if there’s any trend you notice:
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Connect the Duck dots
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September 3, 2022 at Georgia — Ducks lose 49-3 — 12:30 p.m. PT start time
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November 12, 2022 vs Washington — Ducks lose 37-34 — 4:00 p.m. PT start time
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November 26, 2022 at Oregon State — Ducks lose 38-24 — 12:30 p.m. PT start time
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October 14, 2023 at Washington — Ducks lose 36-33 — 12:30 p.m. PT start time
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December 1, 2023 vs. Washington — Ducks lose 34-31 — 5:00 p.m. start time
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January 1, 2025 vs. Ohio State — Ducks lose 41-21 — 2:00 p.m. start time
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October 11, 2025 vs. Indiana — Ducks lose 30-20 — 12:30 p.m. start time
Here’s something I noticed: 4/7 (or about 57%) of those losses came when the game started at 12:30 p.m. Another loss came also in the early afternoon at 2 p.m. to Ohio State. Lanning has not lost a single game at Oregon that started any later than 5 p.m.
USC’s game vs Oregon this weekend? It starts at…12:30 p.m. PT.
Let’s dive into a couple reasons why that is significant.
Lincoln vs Lanning history
USC has played Oregon only once in the Lincoln Riley and Dan Lanning eras, both of which began in 2022. That matchup came on November 11, 2023 with the Bo Nix and the Ducks beating the Caleb Williams and the Trojans 36-27.
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That game was also held at Autzen Stadium, and it started at 7:30 p.m. PT. The Trojans were not equipped for their final edition of Pac-12 after dark.
Maybe Autzen Stadium will be kinder to them during the day.
Temperature
USC’s offense hasn’t really been slowed down by rainy conditions. But the Trojans did play their worst offensive game in the cold.
The Trojans beat Nebraska 21-17 in a rockfight earlier this month in their coldest game of the season. The game began at 6:30 p.m. CT (local time) and only got colder as it went on.
Frigid temperatures can make it more difficult on receivers and quarterbacks especially. It’s not going to be like a Los Angeles summer day in Eugene this weekend, but at least the Trojans can count on the fact that they will be playing during the warmest time of the day.
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Atmosphere
There’s something about playing in tough college football environments at night that makes those environments even a little bit tougher. More time for the excitement to build on GameDay? More time to fill yourself up with energy at the tailgates?
Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places in the entire world to win a game on the road. But USC can likely expect a little less energy from Oregon fans that early in the day, at least until Duck fans get a few breakfast burritos and the Pacific Northwest’s famously good coffee running through their veins.
Getting off to a fast start
If an early start time is going to affect the Ducks at all, it is going to make them start slow rather than finish slow. USC has struggled to start fast in the last three weeks — the Trojans have really been a second half team.
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But if Oregon starts even slower, that could be the small advantage USC needs to finally play 60 complete minutes of football.
Narratives — silly or warranted?
Now, I know what you’re going to say. Ethan, aren’t you grasping at straws? Isn’t Lanning’s start time trend just a coincidence?
Here’s what I’d say to that: every little element of a college football game is worth paying attention to.
Let’s take it back to Lincoln Riley. He is 1-6 against ranked teams on the road during his time at USC, and his one road win hardly counts because it came against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, which is located closer to USC’s campus than UCLA’s campus.
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But Riley is 4-4 against ranked teams in the Coliseum. To make matters more confounding, he’s 3-2 against ranked teams at neutral sites, including 3-0 in his last 3 games.
Yes, Riley’s immense struggles in ranked road games has something to do with the skill level of the teams USC has been fielding. But then why is USC markedly better against ranked teams at home and neutral sites than on the road?
Home vs Road
The football is the same size! The fields are the same size! It’s the same game! And yet USC has looked like a different team. No one knows if it’s because they travel too late or they are mentally intimidated by road environments or what. But it’s a real trend.
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And that trend is being used to discredit Lincoln Riley ahead of this Oregon game, as it should. I’ll even admit that it’s a more important narrative at this point than Lanning’s struggles with early starts. But like I said, every little factor is worth our attention for both sides. There’s nothing about the game itself on the field that will be harder for USC on the road versus at home. It’s not like baseball, where every field is a different shape and size. It’s all about unseen, intangible factors.
Mystery vs Reality
I’m not pretending to know why Lanning and the Ducks may struggle with earlier starts. What I am saying is that if we are going to further the narrative that USC’s Lincoln Riley-led teams struggle on the road because of intangible factors, we should also consider the idea that Dan Lanning’s Oregon teams struggle with early start times because of intangible factors.
Ultimately, Dan Lanning and the Ducks may make me look silly Saturday and crush USC, leaving Trojan fans grumbling and searching for answers about Lincoln Riley in big road games again. But if USC wins, it might be time to start asking questions about Dan Lanning before dark.
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This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Oregon football coach Dan Lanning history vs USC football