The global oil market is tilting towards oversupply as production growth continues to outpace consumption despite a rise in Chinese demand, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest monthly report released on Thursday. The IEA projected that worldwide oil production will exceed demand by more than four million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, following an upward revision in its global supply forecast. “Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the agency said, as quoted by AFP. The IEA noted several uncertainties influencing its projections, including the economic fallout of tariff disputes, US government shutdown (which is ending as Trump signs order), and the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, a major oil producer. Global oil output is expected to rise by 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and by an additional 2.5 million bpd in 2026. While consumption is also growing, its pace remains far slower than supply expansion. Demand growth is forecast to decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous quarter, “adding to market balances that look increasingly askew,” the report stated. Despite the imbalance, Brent crude prices edged slightly higher to 63.05 dollars per barrel on Thursday, though they remain down around 17 per cent over the past year.