Apple ‘s short-term catalysts may be weighed down by its longer-term risks, according to Jefferies. The bank upgraded the iPhone maker to a hold rating from underperform on Tuesday. Analysts led by Edison Lee accompanied the move by hiking the bank’s price target to roughly $188 per share from $171, suggesting nearly 10% downside from Tuesday’s close. The Tim Cook-led company has tumbled 17% this year. AAPL YTD mountain AAPL YTD chart As a catalyst for the upgrade, Lee pointed to 15% annual growth in iPhone sales volume in April and May, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2021. Lee also estimated that iPhone sales grew 19% year over year during the June 18 Chinese shopping holiday. “This is a strong sign that AAPL is determined to defend market share in China, and Chinese consumers are still willing to buy iPhone at lower prices. We believe 40m units is likely the minimum AAPL is looking to maintain in China,” the analyst wrote. “Given the special situation in the last 3 months, we see potential upside surprise for AAPL’s 3QFY25 results.” A good June quarter “could keep the stock stable near term,” Lee said. But strong sales in the June quarter could mean a slowdown in demand in the September quarter, the analyst added. “We believe the sales could be at risk since there remains a lack of new features, and AI is not yet a game changer,” he wrote. “We are worried about the attractiveness of 17 Slim, since 1) it has only one camera, 2) its battery capacity is likely at only 2,800 mAh, and 3) a higher selling price than 16 Plus.” The analyst added that Apple could also be plagued by long-term risks, such as downside in revenue from the App Store. Meanwhile, the market’s view on the final U.S. tariffs on goods from India, Vietnam and China — where Apple manufactures its products — may be too optimistic. “But the stock could remain stable until there is more clarity on U.S. tariff,” Lee added.